Thanksgiving NFL Picks: Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

NFL Picks: Thanksgiving Day Game – Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions This is a funny game for a number of reasons – it’s a rivalry game with a big point spread on a national stage, for one. More importantly, it’s arguably the best pass rush in football against arguably the worst offensive line in football with arguably one of the panickiest quarterbacks in football. That’s a recipe for disaster.

Seven might be too many, I agree, and the line is a little sharp. That said, how do you trust Jay Cutler here? He’s going to take a beating, and ultimately, ...

NFL Picks: Thursday Night Football – Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders

NFL Picks: Thursday Night Football – Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (+7.5)I don’t like this line. I think it’s dangerous and there are a number of reasons to avoid this one. I actually lean to the underdog, but because I can’t trust them, personally, I’m going to place a very small wager.

This is a short preparation week, and while the Raiders don’t exactly set the world on fire with their offensive weapons, that is still going to be a factor that favors the home team. Oakland is a crazy place to play, and as a heavy underdog ...

NFL Picks Week 11: Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints

NFL Picks Week 11: Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints I don’t think the Bengals get it, and I think New Orleans is about to show them. How do you lose to the Browns in a blowout only to make a statement, after a horrible game all around, that the Browns are actually WORSE than you thought? Here’s something we all know – the New Orleans Saints are no joke in the dome. I smell poetic justice.

Andy Dalton is struggling, the backfield is in a slump, the defense has been unimpressive lately, and injuries have hurt the receiving options. ...

NFL Picks, Thursday Night Football: Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

NFL Picks, Thursday Night Football: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

This is a fun one. Both teams are 5-4, squarely in the wild card race, and not prohibitively behind the Pats atop the AFC East. Realistically, though, falling to .500 would make things difficult in the playoff race, falling behind the entirety of the NFC North, among others.

The Buffalo Bills had a nice tandem at running back before both Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller went down. Jackson may be back in the fold, but I’m not sure how useful he will be with a lingering groin issue. ...

NFL Picks Contest, Week 11: Falcons Panthers

NFL Picks Week 11 Contest ($200 Prizes): Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

It’s funny. If you asked me who two of the most disappointing teams were this season, they’re playing each other. Then you look in the standings, and the Atlanta Falcons are a game out of first place in the NFC South division, and because of a missed overtime field goal and a tie, the Carolina Panthers are just half a game out. This division is terrible, these teams are terrible, but this game could be a good one. For our purposes, let’s give up the 1.5 spread and just call this one a pick ’em. Who ya got?

Also, here are our standings. Somehow, all four of leaders won. Since this is a first to ten wins contest, this could be the last week our first place prize of $150 is on the table, but don’t forget that second place (the second person to ten wins) ...

NFL Picks Week Ten: Saints Niners, Falcons Bucs

NFL Picks Week Ten, Double Pick: New Orleans Saints vs San Francisco 49ers, Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFL Picks Week Ten: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This line opened up at -1 and we jumped in. Again, by being early this week, my forum saved us some points for the VIP Club community, but we’ll analyze this one both ways. I just don’t see how the Atlanta Falcons can be this bad, and I still don’t believe in the Bucs.

I think it is a tremendous mistake to go back to Josh McCown over future franchise quarterbacks, even if they’re as mediocre as Mike Glennon. This is a lifetime backup who had one decent season in Chicago with some of the best weapons in football. On a team as weak as Tampa, I don’t see him having success. I also question breaking up the connection that Glennon was establishing with a now-healthy Mike Evans. Either way, ...

NFL Picks Week Nine: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

NFL Picks Week Nine: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh SteelersThe Baltimore Ravens are probably the better team if this game was played at a neutral site. Baltimore has more balance and probably has a better defense. That said, Pittsburgh wakes up for home games.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are capable of exploding at any time. Antonio Brown is one of the top weapons in football, Ben Roethlisberger is coming off an absurdly prolific passing performance, and the Steelers are far too hot to bet against right now.

My lean is to the Steelers, with computer support and good reason. This is always a tight, grinding rivalry game, so we temper our wagers considerably.

Steelers 27 – Ravens 20

NFL Picks: Monday Night Football – Redskins Cowboys

I am a little bit nervous about this big of a spread in a rivalry game. These teams know each other well. The Cowboys might very well be overrated… and, evaluating this one less professionally, isn’t Tony Romo due for one of those games?

The Redskins also don’t warrant a +9 wager in my eyes. They’re dropping pretty far down the quarterback depth chart for this one, with RG3 out at least one more week. They have a liability at quarterback on an already poor team.

The reason I don’t like Cowboys -9 is, while I expect them to dominated, there are a few key factors outlined above that make me think this one might be close. I like an open parlay here. The Cowboys ML is steep, but it makes for a good parlay play because at home, even if close, I think the Cowboys win. I don’t like a ...

NFL Picks: Sunday Night Football – Packers at Saints

NFL Picks, Sunday Night Football: Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints

This looks like a trap. The Green Bay Packers have two thirds of the public money on them, yet the line has approached +3 from it’s humbler origins. Vegas is reacting the opposite way to money, which is a sign they know something we don’t. Let’s talk about what we do know:

New Orleans is a really difficult place to play and the Saints rarely lose at home.

Jimmy Graham is playing and should be better this week than last, which makes their offense much better.

The Saints are getting desperate.

The Packers aren’t that good. Lacy is off to a slow start, the offense is imbalanced, and the Saints defense might be able to contain this middling bunch. It’s all about noise and pressure.

I think the Saints give the Packers a game, and unless there is a sharp line reversal at game time, I’m ...

NFL Picks Week 8: Thursday Night Football, Chargers at Broncos

Thursday Night Football Picks, Week Eight: Chargers Broncos

NFL Picks: San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos

I liked this game when the spread came out around 7, but now that it’s up to ten it’s starting to lose value for me. The same appears to be true of the computer algorithm, which suggests a 91% likelihood of a money line win for the Broncos, but diminishing value in the spread and the line – particularly as it has moved.

This game, for me, comes down to a few basic factors. Unfortunately, some of them are rather intangible.

Home field on a short week always favors the home team. To travel into a noisy stadium and attempt to execute your offense in a hostile environment when you aren’t fully prepared to face a defensive scheme is incredibly difficult – especially when contrasted against the peaceful quiet the home team operates under. It directly impacts the game. That said, Peyton Manning ...