NFL Picks: Thursday Night Football – Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (+7.5)
I don’t like this line. I think it’s dangerous and there are a number of reasons to avoid this one. I actually lean to the underdog, but because I can’t trust them, personally, I’m going to place a very small wager.
This is a short preparation week, and while the Raiders don’t exactly set the world on fire with their offensive weapons, that is still going to be a factor that favors the home team. Oakland is a crazy place to play, and as a heavy underdog I think they’ll have some help covering the spread with noise and game planning. The Chiefs will move the ball, but will they finish drives in this crazy forum? I’m not so sure they can.
Additionally, the spread jumps off the page a little. The computer gives the Raiders a 79% chance to cover +7.5, and I like those odds. The Raiders have been playing much better lately, and in a big rivalry game I think they come to play. This is a big spread and a cover here wouldn’t be out of the question.
KC is the better team, has a solid defense, and makes very few mistakes in a run-heavy attack. That said, 7.5 seems like too much, and I’m on the Raiders to cover.
Chiefs 27 – Raiders 20
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