Thursday Night Football Picks, Week Eight: Chargers Broncos
NFL Picks: San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos
I liked this game when the spread came out around 7, but now that it’s up to ten it’s starting to lose value for me. The same appears to be true of the computer algorithm, which suggests a 91% likelihood of a money line win for the Broncos, but diminishing value in the spread and the line – particularly as it has moved.
This game, for me, comes down to a few basic factors. Unfortunately, some of them are rather intangible.
Home field on a short week always favors the home team. To travel into a noisy stadium and attempt to execute your offense in a hostile environment when you aren’t fully prepared to face a defensive scheme is incredibly difficult – especially when contrasted against the peaceful quiet the home team operates under. It directly impacts the game. That said, Peyton Manning is a preparation freak. Will he be able to adjust his routine?
Secondly, which Chargers team will show up? The San Diego Super Chargers have shown an ability to blow teams out of the water at unexpected times, or to choke away (especially on the road) games that they seemingly should have with ease. Phillip Rivers is having a great year, but they can be wildly inconsistent.
For me, when Denver only needed to win by a touchdown, I liked this game. In fact, at -6.5 earlier in the week, I’ve got a small wager. As this jumps to two possessions, I’m not sure it’s nearly as worthwhile. While I can see Denver blowing out the Chargers and covering ten points, I can also see this coming down to a late Peyton Manning touchdown pass.
I’m on it at 6.5 or a teaser, but I don’t like the full spread. Z-Code agrees.
Broncos 38 – Chargers 27
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