NFL Picks, Thursday Night Football: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
This is a fun one. Both teams are 5-4, squarely in the wild card race, and not prohibitively behind the Pats atop the AFC East. Realistically, though, falling to .500 would make things difficult in the playoff race, falling behind the entirety of the NFC North, among others.
The Buffalo Bills had a nice tandem at running back before both Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller went down. Jackson may be back in the fold, but I’m not sure how useful he will be with a lingering groin issue. Throw a stumbling running game with bad quarterback play into a game against one of the tougher defenses in football, and I’m not sure what kind of production we can optimistically expect from the Bills.
Additionally, the Bills are on a short week. A questionable Jackson has three less days to prepare for the game, and so do the rest of his teammates. The Bills are in a tricky spot here. On the one hand, these teams are familiar with one another and the short week won’t have as large an impact in a divisional rivalry game. On the other, the Bills don’t know who they have active for this game and devising a game plan against this defense will be incredibly difficult in just a couple days.
The computer leans ever so slightly to the home team, and I agree. I just don’t see any value on a 53/47 toss up for the Dolphins. While the home team always has an edge on the short week, four points is too many for an offense i don’t trust.
I’m going to watch this one. I recommend not betting it, but the algorithm does have a slight ML edge to the Dolphins and a 61% chance for the Bills to cover the spread. While that seems like a sufficient edge, it’s mitigated by health considerations and the short week on the road.
Computer:
Low confidence Bills +4, Dolphins ML
Mark:
No bet
Prediction:
Dolphins 23 – Bills 20
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