Home and Home
Recap: Let’s go over some crucial points about our past couple of picks. We are now a game below .500, losing our past two days plays. On one of these days we had two game picks, so it comes out to three losing plays total which moved our record backwards to this point. Now we’re going to move forward and turn it around. Though it’s smart not to look back, we aren’t simply going to move forward in denial like most would. Instead we’re going to make room for some interesting discussion here, hope you enjoy it!
In our last three plays where we struggled, it could be said we were on the correct side of every game. In all three games, our team not only outshot the opposition, but did so by a two to one margin. Last night Colorado outshot Anaheim by more than this ratio. They waited until the third period to give the Ducks a fight and turn 3-0 into 3-2, but still fell short despite more than 40 shots and a ton of scoring chances. It’s pretty phenomenal that these games didn’t go our way, but these are promising statistics going forward, and definitely a good sign for our picking strategy. It’s important to mention this because it gives us good reason to stay with our current system’s arsenal. By arsenal I’m referring to how we’ve used the importance of games instead of mere trends, to support our plays. We’ve used current streaks as well as home/away factors, including how each team’s schedule of play and rest will help or obstruct success. If you’ve been following and even trusting our judgment, I want to say thanks and congrats for being on the wiser side of mastering the league. It actually does take courage to go beyond dumb luck and simple stat history to do this, and understand what really comes into play. Let’s keep rocking and rolling like we do best.
Tonight we’re going to show some extra confidence in our prediction. One could say it’s time to flex our muscles a bit. Let’s begin by going straight out and taking the Toronto Maple Leafs to win both games in a home and home ordeal with the New York Islanders. We’re once again taking into account the upcoming all-star break. Our logic, if only proven by SOG, is the combination of a more talented team, that’s also equally hungry or in need of a good streak of points, will do the best going into the break. The Islanders have been on a nice tear recently, not scoring a ton of goals, but winning comfortably with the huge presence of Nabokov in net. They are on a three game win streak, ten points behind the Devils who’ve slid down from third and are just holding on to fourth in the Atlantic at this point. The Isles or Pylonders, or Piles as sometimes referred to, are slightly better in their last ten games than Toronto. Tavares may not be able to keep up multiple points per game, but there is no sign of Nabokov backing down. The thing about a hot goaltender is it only takes a few pucks behind him to turn the tide. Obviously our advantage is Toronto’s strength on home ice, and ability to score more than five goals in a given game there, which if it happens would surely break down Nabokov. Remember we’re also confident in Toronto winning both of these games today and tomorrow, so if we choose a different Tuesday match-up, it will still be advised to have a small play on the Leafs.
Fitting our strategy, Toronto is the more well placed team in the standings going into the break. More than just another team who wants to prove playoff, they’re also capable of it. Following last year’s monstrosity, the Leafs aren’t about to underestimate or underplay their best talent against the Pylons. They’re going to make sure they take both games from New York to aid their own cause before the second half. The Leafs are quite possibly in the most competitive spot in all of hockey. They find themselves smack between the steaming Senators and Montreal. All three teams are bitter rivals and Toronto deserves much credit for sticking only nine points off of Ottawa. All of these teams have a similar purpose as well…dominating on home ice for the rest of the season. They all know the importance of extra divisional point getting, because when they play one another the call is as good as a coin toss. We take Toronto very confidently tonight, not to chase our losses (never wise), but instead because it’s a strong game for us. No current streak will affect our strategy and confidence, just as we don’t let it become the single determining fact in our plays.
Tonight’s play:
Toronto ML, -1, and -1.5 in a 3-2-2 ratio.
You may not have noticed, but a several of tonight’s games involve teams battling to escape bad streaks. Both Ottawa and Columbus are looking to avoid five game losing streaks. Columbus will be on the road against the Anaheim Ducks, another last place team. Some might say Columbus is more motivated and will see the Ducks as beatable. But Anaheim has been stacking on points with seven wins in the last ten games, compared to a measly two for Columbus.