Andy Dalton is struggling, the backfield is in a slump, the defense has been unimpressive lately, and injuries have hurt the receiving options. ...
Tag Archives: Football
NFL Picks, Thursday Night Football: Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins
NFL Picks, Thursday Night Football: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
This is a fun one. Both teams are 5-4, squarely in the wild card race, and not prohibitively behind the Pats atop the AFC East. Realistically, though, falling to .500 would make things difficult in the playoff race, falling behind the entirety of the NFC North, among others.
The Buffalo Bills had a nice tandem at running back before both Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller went down. Jackson may be back in the fold, but I’m not sure how useful he will be with a lingering groin issue. ...
NFL Picks Contest, Week 11: Falcons Panthers
NFL Picks Week 11 Contest ($200 Prizes): Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
It’s funny. If you asked me who two of the most disappointing teams were this season, they’re playing each other. Then you look in the standings, and the Atlanta Falcons are a game out of first place in the NFC South division, and because of a missed overtime field goal and a tie, the Carolina Panthers are just half a game out. This division is terrible, these teams are terrible, but this game could be a good one. For our purposes, let’s give up the 1.5 spread and just call this one a pick ’em. Who ya got?
Also, here are our standings. Somehow, all four of leaders won. Since this is a first to ten wins contest, this could be the last week our first place prize of $150 is on the table, but don’t forget that second place (the second person to ten wins) ...
NFL Picks Week Ten: Saints Niners, Falcons Bucs
NFL Picks Week Ten, Double Pick: New Orleans Saints vs San Francisco 49ers, Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFL Picks Week Ten: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This line opened up at -1 and we jumped in. Again, by being early this week, my forum saved us some points for the VIP Club community, but we’ll analyze this one both ways. I just don’t see how the Atlanta Falcons can be this bad, and I still don’t believe in the Bucs.
I think it is a tremendous mistake to go back to Josh McCown over future franchise quarterbacks, even if they’re as mediocre as Mike Glennon. This is a lifetime backup who had one decent season in Chicago with some of the best weapons in football. On a team as weak as Tampa, I don’t see him having success. I also question breaking up the connection that Glennon was establishing with a now-healthy Mike Evans. Either way, ...
NFL Picks Week Nine: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL Picks Week Nine: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh SteelersThe Baltimore Ravens are probably the better team if this game was played at a neutral site. Baltimore has more balance and probably has a better defense. That said, Pittsburgh wakes up for home games.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are capable of exploding at any time. Antonio Brown is one of the top weapons in football, Ben Roethlisberger is coming off an absurdly prolific passing performance, and the Steelers are far too hot to bet against right now.
My lean is to the Steelers, with computer support and good reason. This is always a tight, grinding rivalry game, so we temper our wagers considerably.
Steelers 27 – Ravens 20
NFL Picks: Monday Night Football – Redskins Cowboys
NFL Picks: Monday Night Football – Redskins Cowboys
I am a little bit nervous about this big of a spread in a rivalry game. These teams know each other well. The Cowboys might very well be overrated… and, evaluating this one less professionally, isn’t Tony Romo due for one of those games?
The Redskins also don’t warrant a +9 wager in my eyes. They’re dropping pretty far down the quarterback depth chart for this one, with RG3 out at least one more week. They have a liability at quarterback on an already poor team.
The reason I don’t like Cowboys -9 is, while I expect them to dominated, there are a few key factors outlined above that make me think this one might be close. I like an open parlay here. The Cowboys ML is steep, but it makes for a good parlay play because at home, even if close, I think the Cowboys win. I don’t like a ...
NFL Picks: Sunday Night Football – Packers at Saints
NFL Picks, Sunday Night Football: Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints
This looks like a trap. The Green Bay Packers have two thirds of the public money on them, yet the line has approached +3 from it’s humbler origins. Vegas is reacting the opposite way to money, which is a sign they know something we don’t. Let’s talk about what we do know:
New Orleans is a really difficult place to play and the Saints rarely lose at home.
Jimmy Graham is playing and should be better this week than last, which makes their offense much better.
The Saints are getting desperate.
The Packers aren’t that good. Lacy is off to a slow start, the offense is imbalanced, and the Saints defense might be able to contain this middling bunch. It’s all about noise and pressure.
I think the Saints give the Packers a game, and unless there is a sharp line reversal at game time, I’m ...
Free NFL Picks Contest on Facebook ($200 Prizes): Packers Saints Week Eight
NFL Picks Contest Week 8 ($200 Prizes): Packers Saints
Someone tell me how the Saints are favored after how horrible they’ve been all year? This is a straightforward Las Vegas trap game if I’ve ever seen one – even though I know the Saints are much better at home in the dome. Heck, that’s probably what the trap is being laid for… so who ya got? Saints -1 is the line, but for our purposes let’s just make it a pick ’em. Comment on this post on our Facebook pageto participate – it’s free to play and the winner ...
NFL Picks Week Seven, Sunday Night Football: Niners Broncos
NFL Picks Week Seven: San Francisco 49ers +6.5 at Denver Broncos
Contest Game, Sunday Night Football
For me, the only reason I’ll be watching this game is because Peyton Manning is two touchdowns shy of an NFL record. Additionally, that probably gives him an even bigger stage to perform on and he rarely lets us down on his home field.
That being said, while I don’t think the 49ers are all that good (and highly dysfunctional, San Francisco is playing excellent football lately. To think they can’t keep it within a touchdown is strange. +7 with the hook looks like ...
NFL Picks Week Six, Sunday Night Football: Giants Eagles
NFL Picks Week Six: New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Our only system play today was the Baltimore Ravens and that one was over shortly after it started. Sitting pretty, we’ll look at the Sunday Night Game, despite it’s lack of value and computer signal.
Z-Code suggests staying away, and I agree. The computer has basically a coin flip output with a small spread. The algorithm is essentially saying “Vegas got this right, just watch and enjoy a good game”. It is further limited in value by the fact that Sunday Night Football is always a highly public betting ...
