MLB Picks Contest (With NHL), Round One: Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees on April 8th
I’m posting slightly earlier than usual to try to bring some attention to the contest. It starts tomorrow. Simply comment on our MLB Picks page on the post pinned to the top.
Here is the Z-Code output for the game and my analysis. Formally, I’m not betting this game but my lean for the contest would be the Yankees. The computer agrees with me, but I have my hesitations.
With five-star support to the Yankees and a 58% chance to win, the computer likes New York at home. I see that as a little bit of conflict in the algorithm, but still a good signal. My feeling is that if there is only a 58% chance to win and the line is -145, why is there five-star value? Both signals are in the Yankees favor, but the confidence varies significantly. Something to consider.
Another source of my hesitation comes from the fact that yesterday was Derek Jeter’s last home opener. Baseball is a funny game, and there might be an emotional let down here after such an intense game.
I also don’t think there’s a very strong pitching edge. Nova is good but inconsistent and far from unhittable. Chen tends to be a very consistent pitcher for the Orioles. He also plays the Yankees pretty tough.
Divisional rivalry, not a strong edge, not much value in the line. I lean to New York with the computer, but I don’t have money on it. Either way, you guys should definitely compete in our picks contest. It’s free to join and a lot of fun, with real cash prizes delivered quickly every time! Nothing to lose, and lots of fun. Just comment on that post on our Facebook page. Cheers.
Yankees 5 – Orioles 4
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