Baseball

MLB Picks: Pittsburgh Pirates, LA Dodgers AB Doubler Progressions

MLB Picks: Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins, LA Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds I’m posting a little late today so I’m giving you guys two picks. Hopefully we can clear some more money. We’re killing it this month on the forum, and we’re up about six units (where average bets are around .5 units).

The LA Dodgers have the best pitcher in the league waiting in the wings, so I like an AB doubler against a mediocre Cincinnati Reds team. I think the Dodgers are simply the better team, so even on the road and with a little bit of a sharp line, I like to take a stab at this one knowing Zach Greinke is behind us in the next one and try to get ahead of the likely sharp odds that are coming.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been good to us this year. We got on them right as they started to turn their season around and they’ve been  ... 

MLB Picks: Mets Phillies

MLB Picks: New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies The computer isn’t very confident in this one and the line is kind of sharp, but for me when a pitcher of this caliber goes against a weak offense it’s too hard to stay away. With the New York Mets playing such good baseball right now, I think they will win tonight on the road.

The Philadelphia Phillies have been kind of streaky in the second half and certainly can be dangerous. In fact, with the pitching matchups shaking out the way they are this series looks like a dangerous progression.  ... 

What is Era Pitcher Oscillator and how to use it?

New tool from Zlab!

What is Era Pitcher Oscillator and how to use it?

ZCode MLB ERA Pitcher Oscillator is a very handy tool to look at a pitcher, where he is going, he is stable or not. Earned Run Average (ERA) is a metric designed to assess how well a pitcher has prevented runs in the past. Oscillator shows you changing ERA values of a pitcher in a form of an easy chart. Also you can compare ERA of two pitchers just by looking at the chart. To build the chart you can use various ERA types –  ... 

Free Facebook MLB Picks Contest ($100 Prize): Standings Update

Free MLB Picks Contest Standings Update ($100 Prize)

Congratulations to the few of us that got last round’s game correct. The Detroit Tigers won and we have a standings update. Remember, the first to ten wins overall gets the $100 prize.  It’s free to play, just follow us on Facebook to follow along.  Here is how things look after the Tigers took out the Kansas City Royals in Detroit:

Six Wins

Mark Donatiello

Five Wins

Tarjani Gergely  ... 

MLB Picks: Mark D’s Baseball Predictions, 2015 Results Update

MLB Picks and Predictions: Mark D’s Baseball Forum After another string of wins in our MLB Picks forum, I wanted to post an update about our progress so far – but first, we’re on the Kansas City Royals here in a possible progression opportunity with Johnny Cueto kicking off the series tonight.

Now, back to the recap. We’ve got one progression miss all season and it was on the San Francisco Giants who slumped away our perfect season. Most of our AB doubler losses have been rain outs and dropped progressions (I think all of them actually), and our flat  ... 

MLB Picks: Cardinals at Reds

MLB Picks: St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds

We’re on to the B bet here after a disappointing loss where both offenses sputtered for the majority of the game. The St. Louis Cardinals are the better team here, and they’ve got a huge pitching edge as far as I see it. The Cincinnati Reds are one of baseball’s worst teams, and as long as the Cards make contact they’ll find a way to win here.

I was disappointed yesterday, but I still think the Cardinals will be able to handle business on this progression on the road. We see significant conflict in the algorithm, so we have to temper our expectations a little bit here.

The computer sees 3.5 stars of value in a heavy road favorite that another parameter suggests will lose 60% of the time. As such, our normal advice is to stay away. In the context of a progression, however, I say we trust the system and  ... 

MLB Picks Contest ($100 Prize): Royals Tigers

Ventura and Sanchez are both having miserable years with ERAs approaching five. Sanchez, as a veteran, has never been this poor. Ventura, as an upstart young pitcher, is supposed to be doing more than this. Ultimately, either pitcher can implode, which is why I like this as a contest game so much.

The Detroit Tigers are having a disappointing year and sold off their ace, but I still think it’s too early to count this lineup out of the playoff race. The Kansas City Royals got better at the deadline and seem poised for a return to the playoffs despite a confusing offseason where they failed to add the right pieces by most accounts. Still, an active deadline has them poised to make a run at another World Series.

So, who ya got? As always, simply comment on this post to participate.

Congratulations to our few winners who got a very sloppy match between the Dbacks and Brewers right. We  ... 

MLB Picks: Washington Nationals at New York Mets, Sunday Night Baseball

MLB Picks: Sunday Night Baseball – Nats Mets

Where did the New York Mets come from? The New York Yankees had a huge losing streak earlier in the year and surged to take a big lead in the AL East. The New York Mets did the same with an epic skid of their own in the NL East, and have surged back to be a game behind the Washington Nationals. At home, they can send a real message by sweeping their way into a tie for the division lead. What’s more, the Mets were buyers at the deadline for the first time since their owner lost all his money to a Wall Street scheme.

If you’re the Mets, you have to be excited right now. While I avoided this series because I don’t like to bet against the Washington Nationals, I saw pitching match ups that made me very nervous. The Mets looked poised to make a dent in the  ... 

MLB Picks: Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds

MLB Picks: Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds It’s always nice when the night games haven’t started and you’re already up money on the day, but the early games today gave us a victory behind Max Scherzer and we’re playing with a little bit of house money. I think the Pittsburgh Pirates have a ton of value in an ABC progression against the Cincinnati Reds, and we’re on them here.

The Pirates have their three best pitchers lined up for this one and the Reds traded away the only guy in the rotation that was worth fearing. Pittsburgh is the better team  ... 

MLB Picks: Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, AB Doubler

MLB Picks: Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins This game has a weak signal and some sharp line movement towards the road favorite, but I like it for a system play here. The Washington Nationals are the better team, and coming off a loss with Max Scherzer sitting in the wings, I like an AB doubler progression here.

The Washington Nationals are a strong team with versatility and depth up and down the lineup. What’s more, they have some of the best and most consistent pitching in baseball. With one of the best arms in the game coming in to  ... 

MLB Picks: Baltimore Orioles, LA Dodgers, Houston Astros

MLB Picks: Dodgers, Astros, Orioles Sunday Predictions I’d like to draw everyone’s attention to Sunday’s MLB Picks contest game between the Milwaukee Brewers and Arizona Diamondbacks. It’s free to participate and the winner gets a $100 prize. That said, it’s an ugly game and I want nothing to do with it. Instead, here are our three featured plays for Sunday.

First, I like the Baltimore Orioles over the Tampa Bay Rays. I know the Rays are home, but the Orioles are the better team and I think they have a strong pitching edge.

Next, I like the Dodgers over the  ... 

MLB Picks: Texas Rangers vs LA Angels

MLB Picks: Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels

Well, I don’t personally have any plays today but for fun and for something to drink to, I’m on the Rangers and the over in this one with the computer.

I wouldn’t have personally picked the over in this game as both pitchers are having a great season. That said, public money is pouring in on the Angels despite relatively sharp odds and Vegas must know something we don’t. I think they’re pushing the action and I expect the Rangers to give LA a game here. I think the only  ... 

MLB Picks Contest ($100 Prize): Brewers Dbacks, July 26th

MLB Picks Contest ($100 Prize): Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks

Sunday, July 26th: Garza Vs Hellickson

I like to say “Two Bad Teams No Bet” on our VIP Club wall because for me there is always too much volatility in these games. Bad offenses go silent, bad pitchers give up runs, bad defenses make untimely errors, bad bullpens squander leads, bad coaches make mistakes. When it comes to games like this, I usually like to just stay far, far away.

Instead, I’m going to make this one the focus of our MLB Picks Contest. As always, simply comment on this post to participate.

Here are our standings so far:

Four Wins  ... 

MLB Picks: Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies AB Doubler

MLB Picks: Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies AB Doubler

After a disappointing first game from the Tampa Bay Rays, the red hot Phillies are on a four-game winning streak to open the second half of the season. I still don’t trust the Philadelphia Phillies to do anything but lose, but now we’ve got to temper our expectations. The Rays don’t hit.

I like a progression here because I think the Tampa Bay Rays are simply the better team. They’ve got much better pitching than the Phillies and once again hold a slight edge in this one. On the road,  ... 

MLB Predictions: First Half Baseball Recap

MLB Predictions: First Half Baseball Recap

We ended the first half on a small slide but are still up six units as we finish off the All Star Break. We’ve rode our traditional favorites to some pretty good results, and we’ve also been able to adjust as the markets shifted to keep winning. In the end, we were right about a lot of teams and wrong about some others, but we had a profitable start to another season. We almost got the entire NL right.

AL East

– We were right about the cluster of mediocrity in this division, but we were very wrong about the Boston Red Sox. I didn’t think they had the pitching to be consistent, but I did think they’d be better. And hey, look at my New York Yankees…

What we predicted:

1. Baltimore Orioles  ...