2014 MLB Predictions: Basic Strategy For Winning Baseball Picks

2014 MLB Predictions: Basic Strategy For A Winning Baseball System

When I first got to Z-Code, I was a little bit out of control. I was profitable each season, but I was leaving money on the table. I was placing a bet on every hockey game, sometimes as little as five dollars per play, and I was publishing a pick for all posts. I’ve since learned discretion, and it’s made me the proven, consistent handicapper I am now. We’re up 20 units in NHL this season as my forum comes to a close.

My baseball system evolved as well. I thought that progressions and chase systems were scams and I was determined to prove to the handicapping world that flat betting could be profitable as well. I did that, and posted profit each of my seasons of publishing bets. Last year, however, I decided to introduce ABC progressions to my traditional AB doubles and flat bets. I still posted profits ...

2014 MLB Predictions – National League: LA Dodgers Will Dominate

2014 MLB Predictions – National League: Dodgers Top Mediocre NL

I’ve always been an American League guy. It’s not that I think the DH makes for better games, but my favorite teams and rivalries have always been in the AL. This year, in an unbiased and professional way, I just don’t think the NL is nearly as competitive from top to bottom. I like a couple teams, but mostly, I think the elite will distance themselves quite easily from an abundance of mediocrity. Let’s have a look:

NL East:

1. Atlanta Braves (92-70): The loss of Medlen for the season is going to hurt an otherwise stacked pitching rotation, and the lineup is filled with the usual suspects. I think Heyward and Freeman are good enough to carry this team, but I had much higher hopes when the rotation was healthy. They’ll be good, but can they compete with the Dodgers for the pennant? I’m not sure they have nearly ...

2014 MLB Predictions: American League Edition – Yankees, Rangers, Tigers

2014 MLB Predictions – American League: The New York Yankees Are Back

I love baseball season, and last season was the most profitable across any sport in my professional handicapping career. I can’t express how excited we are for the season to start, but to help build anticipation we’ll be posting daily preseason predictions. This post and the next will break down the American and National League. The following post will outline our basic strategy. We’ll have predictions and progressions, and I’ll try to share some of my private forum from the VIP Club where applicable. Cheers

AL East

1. New York Yankees (92-70): The Yankees are back… well, sort of. Questions abound with Tex, Pineda, and Jeter recovering from injuries that caused fully lost seasons, but I think the Yankees have gotten substantially better. The outfield might be the best in baseball, and if Jeter and Tex are healthy the infield is serviceable. McCann is the upgrade at catcher ...

MLB Playoffs: ALCS and NLCS Predictions – Dodgers Cardinals Red Sox Tigers

MLB Playoffs Predictions: ALCS and NLCS – Dodgers Vs Cardinals, Red Sox Vs Tigers

ALCS Prediction:

The Boston Red Sox defied the odds this season. They bounced back from a horrible season, put a legitimate coach in place, and turned around a pitching staff that was falling apart. It’s impressive, but I think this is where it ends for the Sox.

The Rays were the weakest team in the postseason, and despite wanting to see them upset Boston, we kind of knew it wouldn’t happen. The Tigers are much better.

I love Detroit’s rotation. Anchored by a one-two punch of Scherzer and Verlander, and supported by Fister and Sanchez, I think they have an edge over Boston. The bigger edge, however, I think is in this lineup. Cabrera and Prince should be able to power the Tigers through the Red Sox.

Tigers in six ...

MLB Picks and Predictions 9/21: LA Dodgers at San Diego Padres

MLB Picks and Predictions: LA Dodgers at San Diego Padres

Clayton Kershaw is one of the greatest pitchers in baseball. In a pitcher’s park, he likely is in for a great game. Still, the Dodgers are cold and Z-Code finds value on the home dogs here.

I respectfully disagree and am low confidence on the Dodgers. While they’re cold, there’s a ton of value on Kershaw here. I also think against Burch Smith, the Dodgers bats are due to wake up.

With Kershaw struggling over his last three starts and Burch Smith being Burch Smith, Z-code and I are in agreement ...

MLB Picks 9/18: Desperate New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

MLB Picks and Predictions 9/18: New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

The Yankees have owned the Jays this year, but they’re mired in a year-end slump that could end their push for the playoffs.

It’s been a horrible season for the Yankees. Injuries took away New York’s chances early on, but they battled through. Just when they looked like they were turning a corner in a tight wild card race, injuries seem to have hit them too hard once more.

When you look at this Yankees lineup, it’s just not the same team we thought they were. Then again, ...

MLB Picks 9/16: Free Cash Contest – Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays

MLB Picks and Predictions: September 16th – Featured $100 Contest Game – Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays

This is a rare opportunity to showcase two slumbering teams that are equally futile at the moment, but also the two teams tied for the wild card at the moment. The Rangers have lost ten of eleven, the Rays have sunk to within a few games of missing the playoffs. This is a battle – but not the type you’d expect from the current wild card placeholders.

With at least three teams nipping at their heels, this series could mean everything to ...

MLB Picks 9/11: Pittsburgh Pirates at Texas Rangers

MLB Picks and Predictions: Pittsburgh Pirates at Texas Rangers

Z-Code and I are in an epic battle in this one so I figured I’d feature it on the main page. Normally, when Z-Code and I disagree, it’s a good sign to stay away from a game. I’d have to continue with that advice on this game, but it’s fun to take a look at.

Z-Code likes the Pirates. With full five-star support on the underdog, the play looks to have some value. Still, Burnett is slumping and there’s sweep resistance here. I don’t trust AJ Burnett to snap out of ...

MLB Picks 9/1: Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros

MLB Picks and Predictions: 9/1 – Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros

There are a few reasons this game doesn’t fit my system, but I’m on the Mariners anyway with low confidence and I like this play.

First, why it doesn’t work:

I don’t like to bet when two “bad” teams meet. ...

MLB Picks 8/30: Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies

MLB Picks and Predictions 8/30: Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies

This is an interesting game and a rare occasion where a strong signal from Z-Code disagrees with my forum pick. There is a slight conflict in output by the computer calling for a 53% chance of victory by the Reds and a five-star underdog prediction for the Rockies. Still, I like this game.

After stealing a game-four progression win with the Tigers, I’m feeling pretty good about the stability of our system. Yes, we got lucky, but we hit another play and we continue to win. With NFL and ...

MLB Picks and Predictions 8/28: Chicago Cubs at LA Dodgers

MLB Picks August 28th

There is a lot going on today. For starters, we have round seven of our MLB Picks contest, which features the Baltimore Orioles and the Boston Red Sox. Another exciting (read: scary) play here is the C bet we have on the Detroit Tigers. As good as they are and as streaky as the A’s are, I can’t see a sweep in Detroit… but it doesn’t look good after a six-inning game stole money from us in my mind. Here, I like to focus on another interesting game.

The Chicago Cubs stole a -300 game from ...

MLB Picks and Predictions: Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers

MLB Picks and Predictions: Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers, ABC Progression Opportunity

The Detroit Tigers are an elite team and they’re hitting their stride as the playoff stretch run comes together. Their pitching rotations lines up perfectly with the Athletics’ horrible play of late.

The Athletics aren’t hitting and the Tigers have burning hot pitchers that are far better than anything the Athletics lineup is ready for.

Decent pitching edge ...

MLB Picks and Predictions 8.24: Pittsburgh Pirates Vs San Francisco Giants

MLB Picks and Predictions: Pittsburgh Pirates Vs San Francisco Giants

This has been a tremendously profitable series for the Z-Code community so far. The lines have been dripping with value, the better team is prevailing on the road, and the pitching matchups have been easy to read. The result for my followers is a series win, a progression win, and for some, another flat bet win.

Here, we lack a statistical advantage but there’s value in continuing down this road. The Pirates are in the playoff mix and looking to maintain their momentum as they try to chase down a ...

MLB Picks and Predictions 8/23: Washington Nationals at Kansas City Royals

MLB Picks and Predictions, Friday 8/23: Washington Nationals at Kansas City Royals

This is a tricky game. I don’t think I’ve seen such a strong underdog prediction in some time, but beware the conflicting parameters of the algorithm here.

While Z-Code suggests that there is an 83% chance of a Nationals win, it also says there is only a 68% chance of the Nationals covering a +1.5 spread. There’s five star support, but obviously those numbers do not add up. The system is conflicted, and the read out is not nearly as strong as the first glance suggests.

I see ...

MLB Picks and Predictions 8/22: Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers

MLB Picks and Predictions: Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers

Yesterday we provided two winning picks in a dominant day for the Z-Code community. My forum in the VIP membership area went unbeaten again, and we’re rolling now as the baseball season comes down to its stretch run.

Today, I look at a sharp line that has limited value in my system as the possible best play on the board. It comes with full Z-Code support, a big pitching edge, a home edge, a roster edge, and a momentum edge… what’s not to like?

While Justin Verlander has been a ...

GRAND PLAYOFFS: The King Of The Longest Win Streak – QUARTERFINALS

YAY! Finally we can continue exciting POD contest! Its time to show what you have the best and shine! We have 8 superstars still in the game and we expect big show in this round! Show us what you got…

Day one was very solid for competitors with 7 wins and only 1 unlucky loss! Wins came from Tigers, Rangers and Dodgers so it is easy to notice that good day for competitors is closely linked with my favorites zcode systems. Marco was really unlucky with his Mets +2.5 pick, because Mets allowed 3 runs in additional inning. Koos has ...