2014 MLB Predictions: Basic Strategy For A Winning Baseball System
When I first got to Z-Code, I was a little bit out of control. I was profitable each season, but I was leaving money on the table. I was placing a bet on every hockey game, sometimes as little as five dollars per play, and I was publishing a pick for all posts. I’ve since learned discretion, and it’s made me the proven, consistent handicapper I am now. We’re up 20 units in NHL this season as my forum comes to a close.
My baseball system evolved as well. I thought that progressions and chase systems were scams and I was determined to prove to the handicapping world that flat betting could be profitable as well. I did that, and posted profit each of my seasons of publishing bets. Last year, however, I decided to introduce ABC progressions to my traditional AB doubles and flat bets. I still posted profits in my flat betting opportunities, but with a statistical edge and selective progressions, we posted 40-unit profits in my baseball forum last year, hitting 99% of our ABC progressions (our only miss came early in the year when the Blue Jays looked better than they were).
The trick, for me, has been the extreme level of selectivity we’ve utilized. For ABC progressions, I only choose chases when I feel confident that the team I’m picking will win each game of the series. I know a lot of people that say things like “They have to win at least once, right” and enter into a chase. I don’t do that. I say “They will win each of these games” so that the only way we lose is if we were dead wrong about three consecutive games between the same opponents with the same edge through the series.
We compliment this strategy by utilizing trends and strategies that are proven to be successful. My forum breaks down to a few basic parameters, and we use this with some basic trends. Combining this simple strategy into a filtration of all parameters, we’ve found incredible and sustained success. My parameters are as follows:
1. Roster advantage: It’s as easy as it sounds… who is the better team based on my evaluations of the roster talent.
2. Pitching edge: Who is the better starting pitcher?
3. Home team: I prefer to bet the home team when possible. If I’m betting on the road team, it factors negatively in my confidence and ultimately my wager size regardless of the matchup.
4. Momentum: Who is playing better baseball right now? How many wins in a row? Losses in a row?
5. Z-Code computer output: What does the computer have to say about this game, this series?
I then evaluate the teams in terms of two trends that we at Z-Code develop:
1. Sweep resistance: What is the likelihood of this team getting swept this season? Do they fight extra hard when pride is on the line? Do they care?
2. Best teams to bet: Some teams are proven. They handle business against inferior teams rather than playing down to them. Some teams are proven losers, too.
Using this mechanical system for evaluating games (with some subjective insight in team and pitcher evaluations) we were able to post tremendous profits last year. I expect to do it again.
Cheers,
Mark
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