NHL Picks 10/30: Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames
The Leafs have started the year at a good pace. Even without top free-agent signing David Clarkson, Toronto has been scoring. Their 44 goals lead the East, and they’ve climbed to the top of their division.
Balancing their attack, the goaltending tandem they’ve established has led them to a +14 goal differential. If only Brian Burke could see this team now.
The Calgary Flames have fallen off dramatically. They’ve lost two of three and four of their last six. Back home, they are playing considerably better. They’re also very well rested. Remember, Toronto is on a back to back here.
For me, it’s a simple matter of Toronto being the much better team. Calgary is rested and home, but the Leafs have been dominant. I don’t think the Flames are good enough to keep pace. I also think some of the Leafs’ fatigue is mitigated by the fact that they ran away with the game yesterday. Rolling four lines should keep them energized tonight.
Z-Code agrees on value but produces a conflicted output from the algorithm. The computer lends five stars of value to the underdogs on the road here but this is far from conclusive because there’s a great deal of conflict in this signal. Z-Code thinks the Flames will win this outright, and gives them a full 58% chance to take this one at home.
All in all, I think this is a dangerous game. As Angelo in the VIP Club pointed out, there’s something spooky about this one. The Leafs are 9-0 against teams that don’t start with C… but 0-4 against them (Chicago, Columbus, Carolina, Colorado). GIven the conflicted signal, there’s really no reason to press this game.
THat said, I think there is an undeniable value when you get one of the worst teams in hockey hosting one of the best. The line is pretty, and I think it’s worth a small wager – but nothing more.
Leafs 4 – Flames 2
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