We kicked off the NFL season going 2-1 ATS and now I’m going to take a look at a few potential plays for week 2. The main strategy I want to implement is fading the public. Books are always looking to exploit public perception so hopefully we can find a few winners by fading the public in a few heavily public-bet games. Obviously, this is written on Wednesday (9/13) so always keep an eye on the changing lines and percentages.
NEW ENGLAND @ NEW ORLEANS
New England laid an egg at home in the opening week and the public will be all over them to bounce back. On the other side, New Orleans was not good in their first game and will be desperate to get things going at home. Taking a look at ZCode’s Line Reversals Tool we can get an early breakdown:
As you can see, the Patriots are getting pounded by the public. This presents a great opportunity for us to take a home underdog while catching a touchdown head-start. Let’s take New Orleans +7 (5Dimes).
DALLAS @ DENVER
The public watched Dallas easily handle the Giants in week 1 and they will be expecting similar results against Denver.
Again, we can catch a home underdog. Playing on the road is hard in the NFL and playing against a tough defense in Denver is even harder. Let’s take Denver +2.5 (Bookmaker).
ARIZONA @ INDIANAPOLIS
The Colts are not good and the betting public has already made a clear choice in this game.
Once again, another home underdog that presents us an opportunity. The Colts will be desperate for a win and we can catch more than a touchdown head-start. Let’s take Indianapolis +8.5 (5Dimes)
Like I mentioned, we have a few days until these games take place with lots of wagering in between so keeping an eye on the lines and percentages throughout the week is important. Fading the public is very successful when the public side is 80%+ so keep that in mind as the week progresses and the betting volume grows.
Like all sports investing, this strategy is most effective over the course of an entire season. Use consistent money management and stick to the plan in order to maximize profit. As always, using ZCode’s Line Reversals Tool is a great way to stay on top of all the action. You can find the tool HERE
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