NFL Picks: Monday Night Football – Chicago Bears at San Diego Chargers
It was an incredible week for Las Vegas as huge upsets ruled the day. We took a bit of a hit on my forum, but we didn’t post here as nothing really stood out this week. That said, I do have a Monday Night Football play on the home favorite as the San Diego Chargers host the Chicago Bears.
With lots of gamblers chasing heavy losses, I think this is a great game to fade the public in. 76% of the public is on the Chargers money line, which, at -200, is about what you would expect. It would result in a slight loss for Vegas if the Chargers won. With 63% of the public also on the spread for the Chargers, Vegas looks like they are betting on the Chicago Bears. That said, the line movement reflects caution and not a trap. It has moved to a full four points.
We bought in early on this one and have it at -3. I like our odds there. The Chicago Bears will be without starting running back Matt Forte, and I don’t see how they will function effectively without him. The San Diego Chargers are the better team by far and at home.
Antonio Gates is healthy, Phillip Rivers is hot, and the Chargers should get a win at home against a bad team traveling out west. Z-Code agrees with a 58% signal and a slight indication of value in the line. That said, there is some conflict there too.
In an awful week for most NFL gamblers, we recommend avoiding this one if you feel like you’re chasing. If you’re comfortable and have a long-term, systematic approach like us, we’ll take a flyer on the home team in a weak system play that barely fits with low confidence on an untrustworthy team.
Chargers 38 – Bears 21
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