NFL Picks: Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
The Baltimore Ravens season has not gone to plan. Joe Flacco is gone for the season and may miss some of next year. They lost their top wideout and their top defensive player early on, and tonight they will be without their top running back again. This is not the Baltimore Ravens team of old. This isn’t even the Baltimore Ravens team of new.
The Cleveland Browns also probably didn’t envision a season like this, but it’s been more their own doing than anything else and I’m pretty sure everyone else saw it coming if they didn’t. This nonsense with Johnny Manziel is nothing short of childish in an organization that simply does not know how to run.
The Ravens are a shell of the team we expected them to be. They’re on the road, struggling, and have a backup quarterback in. At least the Browns chose their quarterback situation. I don’t think either team is very impressive and this feels more like a preseason game than a Monday Night Football matchup for primetime television. To be honest, I won’t even be watching this one. It will be background noise.
I’m looking to public money. Zcode indicates that despite the fact that nothing striking shows up in the way money has come in (52/48 ML for Ravens at +180, 60/40 for the Browns -4), the line has been climbing for the home team. If the Ravens win, Vegas will pay out biggest here. If the Ravens cover but do not win, Vegas just about breaks even. If the Browns cover, Vegas wins. The Browns spread tickets vastly outnumber the number of tickets on the money line overall. As such, Vegas has responded to the 60/40 incoming tickets. We’ve seen a far bigger disparity when Vegas is setting traps. I think they’re happy trying to break even here and are pushing some money to the Ravens.
So, do you take the extra point Vegas is giving you or do you respond to their fears and pay -200 to get the home team money line?
I’ll take the Browns to win at home, money line, but only for a small wager. This game should not be on Monday Night Football and this is not a system play.
Browns 24 – Ravens 20
P.S. Upgrade to Zcode VIP Club and Unlock All Winning Picks. Instant Access.
