NBA Picks: New York Knicks at New Orleans Pelicans
The computer is in a bit of conflict here, and so am I. The Knicks are probably the better team, but they’re also on a back-to-back and tired, on the road, and slumping hard. The Pelicans are a much better team at home, and this is a dangerous game.
I think the spread of four points, now moving to 3.5, might be a bit sharp. I think the Knicks can keep this game close and even win here if they play well. Still, with Carmelo a bit tired from travel and playing in the All Star Game, and the rest of the Knicks tired from playing last night, I lean to the Pelicans.
The computer sees a strong edge for the Pelicans to win by money line, but has some hesitations about their ability to cover 3.5 points. I’m going to wait until closer to game time and hope the line falls a little further. If it hits three I’ll buy it to two points.
For now, with a 62% chance to win but only an 18% chance to cover, taking the Pelicans seems like a peculiar bet. There is four stars of value on the home team to take the money line win here, though, and the computer does give a strong recommendation that way. It’s almost as though the prediction is take the points with the Knicks or the money line with the Pels.
For me, the suggestion is very clearly to wait for the line to move a little more. I’m going to buy this to two points, hopefully get some value squeezed out of this one, and enjoy this game from the lower level of the Smoothie King Arena. If it comes back up, I’ll tease with the Knicks. There’s no need to bite where the line is right now.
Pelicans 102 – Knicks 97
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