MLB Picks: San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers
I’ll lead with why this is a risky pick. We have no statistical edge and are not promoting a progression here with only a flat bet option in the middle of the series. Further, this is a road favorite and the San Francisco Giants lineup is far from elite. The Milwaukee Brewers have been pesky, and this could be tricky. So, on the road and with only one stab at this, why bother?
Well, for me there is simply too much value in the line. At -145 with one of the best pitchers in baseball on the mound, I can’t pass this up. While the Brewers can certainly compete with the Giants here, I don’t think they’ll be able to string together runs against Madison Bumgarner. Where the better team has their ace on the mound against a weak team, I like jumping in on the road.
The San Francisco Giants aren’t necessarily a team I like to bet, but Bumgarner has been dominant this season. I see him as a legitimate contender for the Cy Young and he is carrying the Giants while anchoring their rotation.
Z-Code agrees offering five-star support and a whopping 62% chance for a single-game victory here. I’m a little nervous about the over predictions and the +1.5 predictions from the algorithm, but the money line play has the full support of the computer here and it also has mine. It might be a battle, but I think you’ll see the Giants come out on top. With low confidence, I like a flat bet on the road favorite here.
Giants 4 – Brewers 3
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