Today I am glad to feature the interview with Charles, one of the best Zcode experts. This interview is unusually long but if you invest your time and actually read it fully, I bet you will be amazed with the insights Charles is sharing with us. I tried to dig deeper into this bright brain to get more info on the most interesting topics such as Vegas Traps, Sharp Bettor Secrets, Vegas Oddsmakers and more. Enjoy!
1. Hi Charles! You’ve been on fire last days, up 37units in 3 days !
Impressive parlays and hot picks as usual. Our readers and fellow
sports investors are very interested to learn more about you! Where
are you from? Why are you called “crazy charlie”? Is it really you on
the crazy avatar?
Hey Everyone, we ended the week in huge profits and those that followed earlier also enjoyed a heavy season of profitable NBA J. Im from Canada around Toronto and sadly our sports franchises are awful! Ill get into why living where I do is interesting for sports betting later J..
As far as crazy Charlie its something that one of the cappers and long time friends calls me. In basketball season I had 4 big parlays come in the largest of which was 22 to 1. Of course I also pulled in dozens of smaller 4 item parlays. Ill discuss capping parlays later on but needless to say he couldn’t believe my ‘luck’ J.. Any time I tell him my parlay he says im nuts and I win anyways lol. That’s not my picture but that’s how I approach my sports investing. I firmly believe if you have no risk tolerance at all you are cheating yourself out of unspeakable profits.
I got into sports investing as a fluke while subsidizing my income playing poker online. Two + two forums had a sports investing forum where people chatted about what they did. It seemed interesting and I gave it a shot casually back in 2009. I did alright breaking just above even but never did research I always just went with my ‘gut’. My other long time friend of 25+ years also started capping in 2007 and started doing VERY well. Those 2 things brought me into sports investing to start. And this will be my 4th full season J.
3. A lot of people try to cap games but not many get it to the next level like you, analyzing not only players and coaches but also the market situation, line moves etc.. What factors are the most important for you when taking a play?
Im still working on getting together how I’ll use every zcode tool at my disposal but there are several things important. Market movement for me is a key piece of the puzzle that can make or break a play. I have a flagging system where in MLB Ill rate bullpen, Pitcher, Batter and Coaching out of 10. If both teams are within a certain margin of each other (lets say 10) I’ll then look to the markets to inform my decision. If I would take team A but the markets are heavy on B I skip the play. This is not always the case if my system gap is wide and the markets are wonky I stick with the play (Like the Yankees play vs Colorado with Francis on the mound).
I would have to say the most important single factor in being profitable is the situation that the game will be played in. If you can understand the situation better than the linesmakers you shift the odds in your favor. A great example of this was Detroit vs Cleveland last night. With Porcello on the mound people figured over 9 looks great lets go. I went opposite UNDER 9 because porcello was young, practiced up in the pen and didn’t want to be put back in the pen. That is a situation and that’s how to make it profitable J..
4. A lot of people are skeptical about parlays. Mathematically 3-4team parlays put us in a disadvantage. However you have been doing it successfully. How do you overcome it and get an edge?
I alluded to it a little bit above but there are 2 major ways you can take the edge and shift it in your favour. Think about it this way for every odds point you get that’s less often that you have to win your parlays to see a profit. At odds of 4.1 you have to win 25% or more to see a profit, at 10 to 1 you need to only win 10% or more.
How do you make it profitable? Well the easiest for me is understanding extenuating circumstances in each and every game that could push the TOTAL around or the runline. In other words if terrible cold nasty weather is projected and the total is 9 it doesn’t matter if the pitcher is mediocre the total will likely go under. Same in hockey playoffs if teams are even, have a grinding style and play hard take the underdog +1.5. Once you have 2 or 3 solid situational totals or runline/puckline bets I then hinge. Hinging is when Ill take a win where is statistically almost impossible for the team to lose (verlander vs humber anyone?). Ill typically look for 1 or 2 solid teams to hinge and drive up the parlay value. Especially if you can take a runline bet on a favourite for 1.8 or 1.9.
actually set them?
Well I explained that extensively over several postings in my forum on the betting myths and tips but Basically:
– Too good to be true! They put odds on a game that’s so lopsided everyone piles into that team expecting a juicy win only to find out the pitcher is injured and that team loses
– Robbing Line Value: Mostly for sharps they’ll take the obvious winner and squeeze it down to 1.4/1.5 and force sharps onto the runline knowing the underdog will keep it close and those bets will lose
– Adding Juice: In other words they know the total line should be at 8 but an 8 would likely be a push so they post 8.5 so the game at 8 for overs everyone on it would lose
As always my forum has much more detail but that’s a summary J!
Vegas really fix an outcome? Or public perception of the line? Or they
actually fix some public games?
This doesn’t happen as much persay nowadays but used to be a big problem in basketball because spread betting is the money maker. There is documented proof of officials putting up questionable calls to shave a few possessions and get sharps their money. The fave still won but the spread didn’t. Really like above Id say the lines makers and bookies make the money out of the extra .5 or 1 they apply to a total or a a spread etc. .5 of a point doesn’t seem like much but it truly is. Be careful if you peg a game at 8 points and its sitting at 8.5 or 9.
“sharp bettors”. Do they actually move a line?
Haha yes most certainly. That comes with respect from the bookie more than anything else. If I sit down at my bookies and im known to have a 70% strike rate if I put even so little as 5000$ on a game they’ll be shitting themselves trying to adjust for it. If some shmuck comes of the street with 50 Gs and no reputation looks like a dork and drops it on his favourite team the bookies will laugh and take his money the line wont move an inch. The same applies online. If you have a very solid rep with your bookie and you are wealthy enough to slam the lines they’ll correct for it quick. That’s why being a member of zcode is so valuable. We give you the tools to hit the bookies hard even as a newbie before they start to get wise to your profitability J.
reversals? Insider info we don’t know?
There could be any number of things. If you have a chance listen to some interviews with Philly Godfather and other sharps and you’ll pick up a lot of information. Keep in mind especially with the internet EVERYONE is connected. What makes print in a local newspaper might take an hour to hit the web. In that time the betting syndicate’s network already relays that local info back to the big guys and they hose the line. Once the public gets that info the line is already adjusted for it and we get much less value. And yes sometimes its just a case of a scout that went to watch a practice and noticed a pitcher hiding an injury, a batter with poor form etc.
how the odds will change after the initial odds are released or the
market decides them?
I haven’t taken a tonne of time to look into this but basically you have linesmakers which are a service. The bookies subscribe to this service to receive from the linesmakers ‘good’ lines. These lines are those that statistically should reduce exposure to losses and increase profits. Make no mistake that vegas accounts for big market popular teams when calculating lines. That means the markets most definitely can move a line if the demand far exceeds what the bookie expected but not often. When you see the public slamming the one side with bets and they move from faves to dogs be scared be VERY scared.
of profit? It started really well for most of the zcode systems.
Well I had an up and down April with flat picks but I hit 2 big parlays before I started releasing anything and was up around 40 units on the month. With playoffs parlays are even more juicy and I nailed a huge parlay for a net +30 units on Monday (which I sadly didn’t share..) and we hit huge again on a few parlays for the system. All said personally im at 105.6 Units of profit so far in MLB and the past week we did around 30 units net on the system. I don’t do single unit flatbetting so its hard to say. Id expect 100 units + for the season shooting for about 25-40 units a month give or take accounting for unlucky streaks and silly losses.
This is the section where I probably get turned into a martyr but I was asked to do this interview so Im going to be honest with everyone and provide you some VERY important life advice.
When I was smaller I was growing up at home and my mother saw potential in me and taught me at home for 2 years before I got into the school system. We learned at my pace and I devoured material at an alarming rate. By the time I reached the school system in grade 2 I was learning at a grade 5 level. I would sit in class sleeping, bored, distracting other kids and being a nuisance. The teachers hated me, reported me to the doctoral staff and had my examined like a lab animal. Their conclusion was ADHD but luckily my mother knew better and fought it explaining instead that the curriculum was the level of rat feces and I was distracted bc it was a cake walk. I hit full A+ grades every year and the teachers just learned to deal with it. In grade 6 my parents sent me to an achievers school where people were smart and quirky and learned like I did. It was one of the most interesting experiences of my life. I graduated with my business degree from one of the top universities in the world, managed my own franchise office straight out of school and was offered 7 franchises to manage by the CEO after year 1. I guess you can say im smart lol.
Last year in may however, I lost my job that I loved. In Canada the government has strange gambling rules. If you have a fulltime job and can prove that you can live off of it ANY winnings you make are not taxable. However, if you have no fulltime job they expect to tax you up to 50%. Without a job to shield my earnings from poker and sports investing I felt naked and nervous. Then at the end of May the love of my life for the last 4 years left me and I mentally broke. I lost almost everything and it was a very dark time in my life. I had no will anymore, no money management and no hope. I was able to get another job, start saving a bankroll, regain mental composure and start slowly winning again. I had the ability to live large but I allowed outside circumstance to ruin me and im still paying for it today. I almost felt like reaching out to the cappers I knew for $ but pride stopped me and I started back from scratch. Let this be a lesson that even the smartest of us can fall prey to circumstance and lose everything.
I would say from Most important to least important:
1) Money management – Your unit size should FLUCTUATE with your bankroll size. If its 1000$ it should be a 10$ unit size at 10,000$ it can be 100$ etc. DO NOT keep your unit size constant no matter your bankroll size you will lose money trust me
2) Mental and physical health – I workout 3 times a week hard, hike, bike, run and lift weights 2 times a week and eat healthy. With the blood flowing to your brain you think much clearer and better. Id also suggest ADP Choline, Noopept and racetams as part of your mental supplement regiment. You can find it on smartpowders.com and its incredibly helpful.
a. The person who saved my bacon was Elliot Roe I paid a good sum of what I had left to deal with lingering mental anxiety and issues I was having to remove the emotion from my investing and it was priceless. I used to stare at games worried about outcome, watch them chewing my nails or be on my smartphone all day instead of out with friends. He helped me deal with all of my issues and become an emotionless investor making the best trades I could make win or lose. He has extensive experience helping the best poker players and forex traders in the world become the best at what they do. I was skeptical but I can personally attest to the fact that it has helped me immensely. Ive spoken with him and if you mention I sent you he’ll give you a good offer on a 5 session package J. http://www.
3) Balance your investing and personal life out. Make sure your family, friends and loved ones are seeing you and supporting you. DO NOT shut yourself away from the world get out and enjoy the people you love. You only have so much time on this planet and conflict from family and friends will make your bets WORSE not better.
4) Having a system, understanding it and sticking with it: Im going to assume everyone here is following a system of some kind. Valdemar, Warwick, Mark, KISS, Robert TTV, Joao totals etc. If you are that’s great make sure you stick with it! The WORST thing you can do is hit a losing week or day and jump ship only for the system to hit huge the very next day erasing all loses and bringing big profits.
5) Listen to the zcode commentary even if its conflicting from all of the different experts. They all have different points to make and understanding ALL of the information they provide leads you to making much better decisions. Its great to bet with valdemar or Myself or Mark etc but don’t just ignore everyone else and what they say. Sometimes it can save you a bad bet.
That’s it from me guys!
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