American Football

Brain Trick : Overvaluing short term results

The more and more I study cappers and betting cycles psycology, the more I see the same repeating pattern. There is a trick that brain is playing on us, which is the root cause to all major problems such as

Procrastination: You check your emails every 5 minutes, check twitter and facebook, already checked all possible funny cats, but still cant get yourself together to finally do the damn job.

Not seeing the big picture : even if you have a proven backtested system, winning nearly every single day, just one bad day puts you in a state of shock.

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Super Bowl Picks and Predictions: Ravens Niners – Baltimore Has Edge

SUPER BOWL PREDICTION – BALTIMORE RAVENS VS SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

I haven’t been impressed by the 49ers this year. While they’ve been strong in the playoffs, I question their clutchness. They tied the Rams and got blown out by the Seahawks to end the regular season. This is a very beatable team.

On the other side, you’ve got the Ravens. The Ravens destroyed the New York Giants, effectively knocking them out of the playoffs late in the year and securing their own spot. In the playoffs, they took out the best team in the AFC when they defeated the Pats and  ... 

Murphy’s Law And How To Fight it?

Murphy’s law says “Anything that can go wrong will go wrong”

This law goes above all laws in handicapping.

Got a great system that is 101 win-1 loss since last week and want to publish? Next week you go 0-11 dead run. Murphy helped.  ... 

Murray: $4,552 from $100 on a 9 game winning streak?

1. Hi Murray! Please tell us more about yourself.  How is it in Canada

these days?

Canada is a great place to live…except between November and April..unless you love winter sports!  As a kid we spent all our time playing sports outside (no computers, no internet, no facebook, no twitter, no playstation etc.), but now I prefer to stay safe indoors when it’s really bad. Canada is a lot like the States….but without the guns.

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NFL Picks and Predictions – Conference Championships, Ravens Pats Falcons Niners

NFL Picks and Predictions – Conference Championship games – San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons, New England Patriots Vs Baltimore Ravens

NFL Picks and Predictions – Conference Championships – New England Patriots Vs Baltimore Ravens

We’re on the Atlanta Falcons in the Z-Code VIP Club, but we’ll feature the second half of a glorious day of football on our Facebook page. Personally, I’m on the Ravens +10 and a Ravens teaser +14.5…

Z-Code likes the Pats with 2-star confidence on the moneyline and a 62% chance to win the game. I think that bodes well for a spread  ... 

NFL Playoffs Picks and Predictions: Falcons, Packers, Ravens

Last week we posted our predictions for the first round of the playoffs and crushed it. We went 4-0 ML and 3-1 ATS. A great start to the postseason means the next rounds can be played with house money. Here are my second round plays:

1. Atlanta Falcons at PK, -2.5: We got in on this one early in the VIP Club and were able to place our wager before the line moves. I’m on the Falcons with high confidence here. They’re a fantastic home team and taking on one of the weakest road teams in NFL history. The Falcons are coming off a bye, and if not for an RGIII injury (and decision to leave him in the game), I think it’s highly likely the Seahawks get eliminated last week.

Atlanta 27 – Seattle 23

2. A teaser play on Ravens and Texans to +17: I don’t love the two heavy favorites this week. The New England Patriots scare  ... 

NCAA BCS Championship Game Picks and Predictions: Notre Dame Vs Alabama

It’s not quite an NFL Pick, but I’ve got a prediction for tonight’s college football BCS championship… Notre Dame Vs Alabama.

I have a hedge for tonight. I love both defenses and I’m on the under. I also bet with my heart more than my head sometimes, and it’s rarely let me down. I have two plays in addition to the under today.

First, I like a teaser. I think there is a ton of value in an under 49, -2.5 teaser play for Alabama. They’re clearly the better team and if they dominate this game, they still are unlikely to go over 50 points. This is a nice, safe, simple play.

On the other side, I like Notre Dame. I’ve got my hedge saying that at 10 points, Alabama can cover 3 but not 10. I am on Notre Dame +10 in addition to my teaser and under bets.

It is set to be a grinding battle of a National  ... 

NFL Playoffs Recap: Z-Code NFL Picks and Predictions Go 3-1

This year’s spreads for the first round of the NFL playoffs were fairly unfriendly.  Las Vegas was extremely sharp with their lines despite the struggles of home favorites down the stretch of the regular season.  Still, through the Z-Code VIP Club we were able to finish 3-1  against the spread on Wild Card weekend.  In fact, if Robert Griffin III stayed healthy or if Mike Shannahan knew when to pull his injured quarterback, I believe the Washington Redskins would have prevailed as well.  No matter, we’re up big and we’re moving forward.

A recap of our playoff predictions for the first round, as posted last week:

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans

Prediction:  Texans 28 – Cincy 24

We almost got this one exactly right.  The Houston Texans held on and covered the spread for us by winning by six.  Our 3 point safety suggestion came through easily.  Though the Texans are nowhere near as strong as they were a month  ... 

NFL Playoffs Picks and Predictions – Wild Card Round

The NFL Playoffs are upon us.

The Dallas Cowboys again lost to a division rial on the road to miss the playoffs in Week 17. This year, Tony Romo threw an interception to the flat late in the game to seal Dallas’ fate. With the Washington Redskins locking up the final playoff spot, we know the first round matchups. Here is a quick look at our early thoughts on the games.

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans

The Texans slept through the final four weeks of the season, forfeiting their bye week opportunity. They’ll host an upstart Cincy team that surged through the second half to make the playoffs and finish with ten wins on the year. The Texans look like they should be able to control the game, but it could be a close game. The spread opened at Texans -4, but I’m more comfortable buying this down to 3.

Texans 28 – Cincy 24

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens

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NFL Picks and Predictions: Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins, NFC East Championship

NFL Featured Game – Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins – Winner takes the NFC East

I don’t think there was ever any doubt that this would be our featured game this week. Two teams playing excellent football face off with the division on the line. The Dallas Cowboys backed into this exciting game when the New YOrk Giants lost to a struggling Ravens team. The Washington Redskins are on a lengthy winning streak. The winner is in.

The Redskins dominated the first half of the Thanksgiving Day game in Dallas. THe Cowboys have their starting running back in the lineup  ... 

NBA Picks Competition Update, Z-Code Christmas Week in Review

It’s an ugly day for NBA games, with two bad spreads and no bets on the table for me. JPM is inactive as well. It’s a great time to update you guys on the week we’ve had.

Baromir finished the NFL season up nearly 2,000 dollars, successfully manipulating moneylines on heavy favorites to maintain incredible consistency throughout the year. Because of the volatility of meaningless games in Week 17, the system is now closed after another wonderful regular season of NFL betting. Follow our NFL picks page for all the playoff excitement.

Christmas was extremely kind to us this year. In  ... 

NFL Picks and Predictions – San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

NFL Featured Game: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks – Sunday Night Football

A great divisional rivalry takes place on Sunday Night, and with no Monday Night Football on Christmas Eve, this is the biggest show in town. Vegas has set the line at 0 – it’s a pick’em. No picture, so you’ll have to trust my Z-Code analysis.

Both teams are burning hot, which is typically a no bet for my system.

Z-Code puts this at a 50/50 ML bet, which is a no bet signal.

One parameter puts the Niners as two-star favorites, but other parameters are conflicting – no bet.

Z-Code also recommends a systyem play on a burning hot Seahawks team, which conflicts with the 2-star pick.

Personally, I’m on the 49ers. They’re the better team and the defense should be strong enough to control a rookie quarterback in Seattle. With that said, the Seahawks have a tremendous home field advantage in Seattle. I never bet  ... 

NFL Featured Pick and Prediction: Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions

NFL Featured Game – Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions – Saturday Night Football 12/22

Saturday night’s NFL game features a very interesting game. Originally I was on the Lions. Now I’m on the Falcons. Atlanta can lock up home field advantage with a win. The Lions can prove they’re not as bad as they’ve been with an upset at home. It should be a dandy.

I see value in the Lions. They certainly have the firepower to hang with the Atlanta Falcons. Personally, I think the Falcons’ “amoeba defense” is overrated. As Calvin Johnson chases history, it’s easy to  ...