If you are tired of getting ripped off by so called sports handicappers or tipsters, next time you are about to buy into “guru picks locks of the century” stuff, make sure to go through this checklist and ask them the following questions.
Your Anti Scam Checklist:
1. Is their record verified by any 3rd party independant monitoring sites? The industry recognize betting verification services are:
BetVerify.com , BetDog.eu and Pickmonitor.com If the handicapper is not verified, most likely they are losing and try to hide their performance.
2. Next step would be to ask to provide the full past performance at least 2-3 full seasons.
Don’t buy into junk like “I am 8-2 in the last 10 of my 5 Star Locks!!”. Serious bettors don’t care about lucky 10 picks. You can flip a coin and win 10 in a row and then lose 20. Sports investors care about long term profits. Say “good job on last 10. But what was your season total profit?“
3. Don’t buy into “high win rate.” myth. Serious sports bettors know that win rate is totally irrelevant parameter, made only to lure newbies into the scam. High win rate does not mean anything at all. You can be winning 90% and still losing money if you do it wrong on low odds. Ask what is your profit in UNITS. or Dollars. Read page 6 of Zcode bible to find out how to avoid win rate scam tricks.
4. Don’t fall into chase system performance tricks like “My Chase system is 44 wins 3 loss on MLB. 99% win rate!!!”. Usually it means the tipster won 44 progressions and lost 3. But those 3 losses on C or D bets could be so big that in reality he lost money overall even if he says the record is so good. Again, ask how many units he made, not how many progressions he won!
5. Don’t buy “free picks”. Remember, there is no such thing as “free picks” or shall I say “free cheese”. Even if you don’t pay anything for such tips, it still costs you money when you are losing by following the junk. Remember, if something is working, nobody will post it for free on twitters. That is reality of life. Free picks are usually a mousetrap to lure you into the scam.
6. Avoid so called “fixed games” tips or “Insider info“. Read page 9 of zcode bible to find out why. Remember, while fixed games still happen in minor leagues, they never happen in Major leagues and of course nobody is selling such info on public forums even if he is a brother of NBA star.
7. Avoid scams with so called “no risk guarantees“. They usuall sound like “buy tonights lock for just $2000 and if you lose we give you next tip FREE! No risk! 100% guarantee!“. Sounds promising but think about it for a minute. If you paid $2000 per tip, you probably have to bet at least two times more , or $5,000 just to cover the expenses. Now if it loses, you already lost $5000 so who cares if they give you another free loser later?! Don’t be fooled by this dirty trick.
8. Remember, there is no such thing as “Guaranteed Plays” or “Sure wins” or “Locks“. After all, teams still have to show up on the court and play the damn game, don’t they? Scammers talk of guarantees. That’s a red flag. Sports investors talk about probabilities. There might be a high probability but there is NEVER a guarantee.
9. Make sure to ask if the system you are following is backtested at least 2-3 seasons. According to 12 years of our experience in the sports system development, ONLY and I repeat, ONLY backtested systems have a REAL chance to stay profitable in future. Obviously past performance does not guarantee you a future success, but it reveals all the weak points of your system, it shows what went wrong in the past and what to expect in the future, how big was the drawdown, how big was potential profit? It is CRUCIAL to have a fully backtested systems.
If you develop your system yourself, make sure to take your time to backtest it. Over and over again I see people who did not bother to backtest fail fast while those who come prepared and do their homework, succeed long term.
Take a look on the 5 year chart vs 1 year chart.
You can clearly see what to expect from the system that is fully backtested, and if you have a bump on the road you will have confidence that the system will eventually get back on track. While if you bet blindly and don’t know what to expect from your system, the first losing streak will kill your confidence and you will fail to follow the system and miss all the winners that come later.
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Thank you!
Follow what WORKS and Lets win together.
Mike and zLab
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