The Pittsburgh Steelers are playing the Washington Redskins in Washington for part 1 of the NFL’s week 1 Monday Night Football double header. The Steelers are currently the Vegas favorites with a -127 moneyline and a spread of -2.5.

I imagine you’re feeling tempted to bet the Steelers tonight. They’re a likely playoff team if the offense can stay healthy and wouldn’t be considered a long shot for Super Bowl contention. They have one of the most potent offenses in the NFL when Big Ben is healthy. The Redskins are the less sexy pick. They stumbled their way into the playoffs last year after a mediocre 9-7 season. They have question marks in the run game, an emerging but arguably unproven quarterback, a shaky defense and a lack of depth at the receiver position. However, they are still the smart money pick in tonight’s MNF game. Here’s why:

Currently, when betting the spread, 65% of the public is on Pittsburgh. The line opened at -3. As of Saturday evening, the betting against the spread was split almost evenly down the middle with around 53% on Pitt and 47% on Wash. As more bets came in, more money was coming in on the Steelers. This is typically where we see Vegas shift a line to even the betting proportions out again. A move to -3.5 at this point to settle the disparity would have been a good indicator that Vegas was not interested in taking a personal stake in the game but was satisfied making its money from the juice. However, we saw the exact opposite event occur. Vegas shifted the line on Sunday morning from -3 to -2.5 which, expectedly, caused a sharp spike in more money being placed on Pitt. That brings us to today where the public is betting the Steelers over the Redskins against the spread nearly 2:1. This pattern and line movement can only indicate one thing. Vegas is happy with the disproportionate amount of money wagered on Pitt and intends to encourage even more betting on Pitt. Vegas would only be happy about that for one reason- Vegas thinks Washington is going to win or at least that Pitt will not cover the spread. Here’s the best part, Vegas is RARELY wrong- especially when it comes to its own money.

Therefore, the only smart play on this game is to take Washington with the points. I would consider buying the line back to +3 or 3.5 if you’re bookie will allow it. Regardless, Washington is the smart play. Forget about Big Ben. Forget about Antonio Brown and consider what Vegas is doing.