Premier League odds: Can Arsenal win the EPL title?

The Premier League season has 11 matchdays remaining, and the title race could go down to the final day. 

A season ago, fans were treated to a fantastic title race between Manchester City and Liverpool. The Cityzens won the title on the final day after it looked like Liverpool would come out on top.

This season, Man City is back in the title race, but Arsenal is the team battling the Cityzens for the title. After 27 matches, Arsenal is first in the Premier League with 66 points. Five points separate Arsenal from Manchester City.

The two teams will play once more this season and the match could be the title decider. With only 11 games left this season, let’s look at the odds to win the Premier League and whether or not Arsenal can lift the trophy.

Premier League outright winner odds

(Odds accurate as of March 13 from Bet365)

  • Arsenal -138
  • Manchester City +120
  • Manchester United +10000
  • Newcastle +25000 
  • Liverpool +100000
  • Tottenham +100000
  • Brighton +100000
  • Chelsea +250000
  • Brentford +250000
  • Fulham +400000
  • Aston Villa +450000

The teams listed above are the only teams still mathematically capable of winning the 2022-23 Premier League title. In truth, only Arsenal and Manchester City have the opportunity to win the trophy.

Can Arsenal win the Premier League title?

The short answer to the above question is, yes, Arsenal can win the title. However, it will be difficult. There have been plenty of recent signs that Arsenal could slip up. Yes, the team came from behind to win recent matches. The Gunners’ 3-2 win against Bournemouth saw them come back from two goals down in the final minutes to win.

How many times can Arsenal come from behind like that? The old say goes that champions can play badly and still win. Yet, the argument is that teams that are overachievers play badly and still win, and not champions.

Arsenal will play Man City on April 26 at the Etihad Stadium. City won the last seven matches against Arsenal. Surely, City is five points back of Arsenal, but this is the perfect time to place a bet on Manchester City to win the Premier League.

Arsenal is overachieving

Arsenal’s expected points (xPTS) are proof the team is overachieving this season. xPTS are determined by a formula taking into account the probability of wins, draws, and losses. The number gives us a reference for how many points a team should have during the season or shouldn’t have during the season.

Arsenal took 66 points from the opening 27 matches. The team’s xPTS is 55.62, which means Arsenal is overachieving in points by 10.38.

Man City, on the other hand, has 61 points. The Cityzens’ xPTS is 60.21, which shows us that they are right on or nearly on target.

No team in the Premier League has a large gap between xPTS and actual points than Arsenal except West Ham. However, the Hammers xPTS shows underachievement because they are fighting against relegation.

Will Manchester City win the Premier League title?

The Cityzens have been in title fights before. Just because Man City are behind Arsenal by five points shouldn’t matter to bettors at this stage. It could be the right time to back the Cityzens. A $100 bet would return $138 in profits.

Arsenal must still play Liverpool away, Man City away, Chelsea at home, and Newcastle away. Manchester City will host Liverpool, Arsenal, and Chelsea at home. Being able to play all three of those teams at home should be the difference as Man City overtake Arsenal in the title race.

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