NHL Playoffs Picks: Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers Game Two
I still think the Tampa Bay Lightning will give the New York Rangers quite a series and a tough loss in Game One hasn’t changed anything in my mind. We won on the Ducks today in a high confidence wager, and I’ll continue with very low confidence money line wagers on the Tampa Bay Lightning. I don’t like the New York Rangers, so I recognize my own bias here, but I think they’re tired and it will start to show as this series goes on.
Here, I’m going to follow the computer in addition to my money line wager. While the computer gives this one a 40/60 chance and finds value in the Rangers with a minor conflict in the parameters, the computer also likes a 62% chance of the game going over 4.5. I think when the lines get this low there is almost always value in the over. If the Tampa Bay Lightning score two goals, we are guaranteed to at least split our bets and have a chance to win both. For two small wagers, I like our chances there.
The series is still young and I think the Rangers will burn out as this shifts back to Tampa, but I’ll continue to ride out small wagers on the Lightning (tempered by the computer signal and being on the road) and hope the Lightning fight back here after a late goal sank them in Game Three.
Lightning 3 – Rangers 2 (Over 4.5)
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