NHL Playoffs Picks: Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning Game Six
This series didn’t quite go to plan for us as the Bolts jumped out to a big lead early and won some tough, gritty games. True to form, however, the Tampa Bay Lightning began to show the same inconsistencies that plagued them through the first round. The Montreal Canadiens are one of the more consistent teams in hockey, winning games the ugly way and fighting through each game so far (except for a 6-2 blowout, randomly sprinkled in). In the end, this has been quite a series.
We decided to keep betting the Habs in Games Four and Five and have made our money back from their earlier losses. What’s more, we saw this momentum shift coming. With back to back games, the Tampa Bay Lightning’s lack of depth showed through. The Canadiens have a great system, great goalie, strong defensive core, and enough scoring to compete with the Lightning every night. If the Lightning are tired, that becomes a strong advantage and we have predictably ended up at Game Six after the 3-0 lead.
This game comes down to pressure for me. The Habs have been there before, but the Lightning are an impressive team. I expect another battle. If the young Lightning team can continue to use their skilled scoring weapons to keep the Canadiens on edge, they’ll close this out at home. If they play with any hesitation and fall into another grinding Canadiens game, they very easily could find themselves facing elimination in Montreal.
I lean to the Habs. I trust Carey Price more than Ben Bishop. I trust the experience of the Montreal Canadiens to overcome the skill of the Tampa Bay Lightning. I think there’s a chance we see this unlikely comeback all the way through. Happy to be back in the fight here, and banking a big win in the Ducks series already, I won’t put much money on this particular game. We have a series bet already and I’m not really looking for any additional risk. This series has been incredibly volatile… but as far as momentum and pressure goes, I like the value on the Canadiens here.
Again – to recap this round:
Low confidence loss on the Wild (-2 units)
High confidence win on the Ducks (+4.5 units)
Canadiens Lightning (even money, 1 unit series bet pending)
Rangers Caps (+1.5 units, 2 unit series bet pending)
After a profitable first round, there’s no reason to go crazy here, but I like the Canadiens with a low confidence wager to go with our high payout series bet (.25 pays 1 with .5 original) for a little more excitement and value here based on momentum, pressure, and goaltending.
Habs 2 – Lightning 1
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