NHL Playoffs Picks: Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers, Game Seven – Eastern Conference Finals
How do you come up flat on home ice in an elimination game to get to the Stanley Cup Final? What is wrong with the Tampa Bay Lightning that they can light the world on fire one night and utterly collapse the next. Because of this volatility, I am not going to bet on this game. I think the New York Rangers are tired from the physical grind of last series, but they’ve got theedge here and can seal another trip to the Stanley Cup with one more win.
Instead of analyzing this series any further, I’m just going to lay out a list of reasons why I won’t be betting on this game.
1. We already have a +200 series bet on the Tampa Bay Lightning. There’s no reason to buy back in at less value than we already have.
2. Z-Code offers no real signal on this game. The Lightning have a weak three-star value signal on a +130 underdog line. The New York Rangers have one-star value as favorites. The computer calls this one a 53/47 toss up for the Rangers. While the algorithm shows no conflict, it also demonstrates very little certainty. Even the over/under pick is a lowly two-star confidence level. The computer is basically saying we made our money, let’s walk away.
3. We made our money, let’s walk away. The Tampa Bay Lightning have gotten us this far and hit for some high value picks. We hit the over when we wanted, and have pulled away some profit from a seven-game series. Even if the Lightning lose the series, we still win money here by following out the Lightning this far. It’s time to call this one.
4. The Tampa Bay Lightning, as already mentioned above, are simply too volatile. They’re dominant one night, miserable the next. I don’t know who will show up in this pressure-packed Game Seven, but I don’t want to dip into my wallet to find out. From Ben Bishop to this dynamic offense, I just don’t know what version we’ll get.
5. Henrik Lundqvist. The guy has been consistently surrounded by some of the best talent in hockey, particularly on the defensive end. Even still, he has found a way to avoid a Cup. He can come out strong and win this game by himself, or he can give up untimely goals and cost the New York Rangers a chance. Even if these losses haven’t been his fault, the least you can say is the guy has been unlucky. I don’t really want to see my fortunes turn on whether or not Hank can find a way to overcome his demons. King Nothing is simply too big a risk for me here.
So there you have it – five very good reasons to avoid this game. For fun, I’ll say Lightning 4 – Rangers 3 but I have no interest in this one. The computer agrees, and together we suggest simply staying away.
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