NHL Playoffs Picks and Predictions: Chicago Blackhawks Vs Detroit Red Wings
So here is the deal:
We had a tremendously profitable second round. We hedged out of Sharks with guaranteed profits. We CRUSHED the Penguins series and the Bruins series. We are up big, sitting very pretty, with my favorite series of the postseason on the line. This also has the potential to be my most profitable series of the playoffs… despite it going seven games… because we predicted it going seven games and bet accordingly, recognizing how great the Red Wings are at home but needing a Game Six win.
I couldn’t be in a better spot… I threw a casual bet on the series when the Blackhawks went down 3-1 and the value heading into this game is astronomical. I got a huge underdog play for this game, and the line I’m showing is -230. We have so much value, that we could hedge out a moderate Red Wings underdog ML bet and still be up 4.5 units regardless of the outcome… but do I want to take 4.5 units… or do I want to be crazy aggressive, a bit boastful, and attack this huge value line?
I’m going to hedge.
You don’t get this far in sports investing by taking stupid risks. I’m going to pocket my money and go into the Stanley Cup with a big bankroll funded entirely on NHL Playoffs success. We nailed this series, saying Blackhawks in Seven… we predicted the comeback and we won on the wild ride that was games five and six.
Small hedge on the Red Wings:
If Detroit wins I make 2.5 units of profit in this game.
If Chicago wins I make 6 units of profit on this game.
Now for some analysis that doesn’t apply to people in my situation:
THe Chicago Blackhawks are as hot as they come. They steamrolled the Red Wings late in Game Six on the road, and they dominated a must-win game on home ice. Back at home, as the better team, with the hotter offense, and the more consistent goalie of late… all parameters point to the Blackhawks. All four lines are scoring, and the DEPTH of the BLACKHAWKS as pointed out AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SERIES is dominating the back end of this series.
The Red Wings have their work cut out for them, but I can’t write them off completely. I would love for my Blackhawks in seven prediction to come true. I made some enemies on Facebook and getting the series exactly right would be the ultimate prize for me… but I respect the Red Wings too much not to hedge out here and give away some potential value in my ludicrous series play from earlier (that I admittedly made in a rage).
Yes, the Red Wings can win this game… but I don’t see it happening. 4-star support, consistent parameters, momentum, the better team… it all points to the Blackhawks.
I’m hedging, but I love the Blackhawks here as well.
Chicago 4 – Red Wings 1
Medium Confidence
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