NHL Picks: New York Rangers at Arizona Coyotes
We’re riding the red hot Rangers right now, and this is a high-value, high-risk play. Sure, New York is the much better team here, but they’re on a back to back and on the road a long way from home. The -123 line seems absurd to me as one of the best teams in hockey and the class of the Metropolitan Division faces one of the worst teams in the NHL. It’s a Wall Street trap by those Las Vegas tricksters, but after going unbeaten in the forum last night under similar conditions, maybe we’re just smarter than they are.
I’m on this one. We’re playing with a little bit of house money right now as far as I’m concerned as our forum is really starting to roll. I don’t think you play loose, necessarily, but on a game like this where I might be able to talk myself out of a play, you sit back and trust the system. Here is the logic:
1. The Arizona Coyotes have a slight edge because the New York Rangers are tired.
2. The New York Rangers have momentum on their side as they continue to win hockey games.
3. The Arizona Coyotes are home and have the right to last change. Against a tired team, that is important.
4. The New York Rangers have a significantly deeper and more talented roster than the Coyotes.
5. The Rangers have a goaltending edge.
6. The Rangers defense is among the best in hockey and can help weather a possession problem.
7. The Rangers have enough speed and talent to generate scoring against a sloppy team like Arizona.
So, without detailing the New York Rangers roster in full again, I think they’re the better team and we’re on them here despite a suspicious line and a back to back on the road. Tread with some caution here, but it fits the system despite some parameters missing.
The computer agrees giving a 61% chance of victory and 3.5 stars of value. I see some conflict in such a signal, because a 61% chance of victory at a -120 line should be 5 stars value, but the two independent parameters see this game slightly differently. Still, though it isn’t full agreement, it is a signal for the Rangers.
Rangers 3 – Coyotes 2
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