I want to be clear that this is not a system play for me because the line is too sharp. I do, however, like to use the Z-Code test for proportionality to determine if there is any value in the line. Z-Code gives the Washington Capitals an 81% chance of winning this game while seeing four stars of value in the line. An 81% chance means that the Washington Capitals will win just better than 4 out of every 5 games they play, under these exact circumstances, against the Arizona Coyotes. This means that any line up to -400 would have value, and as such, -260 is a reasonable line with value. For me, it’s just too sharp for my system when the Coyotes have been competitive this year. Math says, however, that there is some value in the computer algorithm here according to Z-Code constructions.

Again, I do not buy into one game carrying huge risk. A one-unit win here would also carry with it a risk that could wipe out 3 wins in a row. Still, this is the best play on the board for us so I recommend a small wager for fun in a non-system play.

When you look at the Washington Capitals, they have the best offense and defense in the Eastern Conference. That disparity carries with it a +60 goal differential. Braden Holtby has been incredible, the offense has been very effective and dangerous, and the Caps have been able to win close games and blowout games alike.

Momentum also favors the Capitals, who have set the world on fire in emerging as the top team in the East by a wide margin. Meanwhile, the Arizona Coyotes are floundering. The young players on this team appeared to be one of the best stories in the NHL, but they have lost their way in recent weeks. Because they were so competitive for so long, I am hesitant to lay this kind of money on the Caps. Still, I see the value for a strong lean.

Caps 4 – Coyotes 1