We went 2-1 ATS in Week 6 which improves our YTD to 13-5. Let’s see if we can keep it going with a few potential plays for Week 7. The main strategy I want to implement is fading the public. Books are always looking to exploit public perception so hopefully we can find a few winners by fading the public in a few heavily public-bet games. Obviously, this is written on Monday (10/16) so always keep an eye on the changing lines and percentages.
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND
While the Chiefs lost their first game of the season last week, the public still wants nothing to do with a disappointing Raiders team.
This is a huge, must win game for Oakland. While both teams had a short week to prepare, Oakland didn’t have to travel and I think we will get a max effort from the Raiders. Let’s take Oakland +3 (Bookmaker)
ARIZONA @ LOS ANGELES RAMS
The public took notice of Adrian Peterson and the new look Cardinals.
While the Cardinals did look much improved on offense, the Rams have quietly put together a strong start to their season. This is a great example of a team (Arizona) catching a lot of hype after a win which influences the public to overlook a good Rams team. Let’s take Los Angeles -3 (5Dimes)
DALLAS @ SAN FRANCISCO
San Francisco has not won a game yet this season and the public is on the Cowboys.
While the 49ers haven’t won a game yet, they have stayed within 3 points for five straight games. Now back at home after 3 straight road games, they will be hungry to get their first win in front of their fans. Dallas, who might be without Ezekiel Elliott, hasn’t lived up to expectations and that might continue in a tougher-than-expected road trip. Let’s take San Francisco +6 (Bookmaker)
Like I mentioned, we have a few days until these games take place with lots of wagering in between so keeping an eye on the lines and percentages throughout the week is important. Fading the public is very successful when the public side is 80%+ so keep that in mind as the week progresses and the betting volume grows.
Like all sports investing, this strategy is most effective over the course of an entire season. Use consistent money management and stick to the plan in order to maximize profit. As always, using ZCode’s Line Reversals Tool is a great way to stay on top of all the action. You can find the tool HERE
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