NFL Week 7 Thursday Night Football Pick from Z-Code
The Green Bay Packers square off against the Chicago Bears at home this week for Thursday Night Football. The spread is currently Green Bay -7.5 and the over/under is 46.
Analysis
First off, this game has a ton of red flags. The Bears have been notoriously terrible in recent history whereas the Packers have been equally dominant over the same period of time. Ordinarily this would be a slam dunk bet the Packers whatever the line is sort of game. Furthermore, the Bears look, if anything, worse than ever. However, Green Bay has gotten off to a rocky start at 3-3 and just doesn’t seem to be the team they used to be. Aaron Rodgers is averaging somewhere in the realm of 220/2/1 which is sub-par play for what we expect from him. Aside from a surprisingly stout run-defense, the team is basically falling in the bottom half of the league in all relevant stats. This is a Packers team that hasn’t changed much but is screaming mediocrity this year.
All worries about Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay’s ability to run the ball, and general concerns about the team’s ability to win games aside, there are some important statistics that need to be noted. This year the Bears are currently 16% against the spread and the Packers are 33%. This means that in any other circumstances I would probably be suggesting you bet against both of these teams. Furthermore, the spread is currently -7.5 and Green Bay hasn’t won a game by more than 7 points all season. Chicago also kept it close against the Colts on the road two weeks ago- a team that I think is very similar to Green Bay in many aspects. Moreover, 80% of the public was on Green Bay at -9 when the line opened a few days ago. That number fell to 60% and Vegas shifted the line all the way to -7.5 which has brought the public money to around 70% on the Packers. This sort of movement indicates that Vegas is choosing to take a stake in this game and bet against public opinion. In other words, Vegas likes the Bears tomorrow night.
Overall, I don’t think this game is worth betting. However, I like to bet against the public and with Vegas wherever possible. Therefore Z-code is officially suggesting Chicago +7.5 as your play for Thursday night football.
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