NFL Picks Week Six: Monday Night Football – Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers
Operating under the assumption that the Colts aren’t looking forward to next week’s matchup with an unbeaten Peyton Manning, I still don’t like this game very much.
Z-Code doesn’t either. This is a coin flip. A 50/50 moneyline projection with one-star of value on the road favorites. There’s a lot that goes into this game, but it’s a tough one.
The San Diego Chargers are the least predictable team in football. They beat the Dallas Cowboys fairly convincingly, but they also lost to the lowly Oakland Raiders. Who shows up? Which Philip Rivers decides to host the Colts Monday night? Which Chargers defense shows up? This is ugly.
On the flip side, you kind of know what you’re getting from the Indianapolis Colts. Andrew Luck has been one of the more consistent leaders in football since being drafted. Indy’s offense is steady, their running game is deep, and their quarterback is smart.
With no aid from the computer, I highly recommend not being aggressive in this one. Still, I tend to the obvious play here and the consistency of the Colts. I’m not sure which Chargers team shows up, so my money is on the road team.
My issue is that 64% of the public money is coming in on the Colts. Usually, when there’s only one game, Vegas can game the odds and manipulate public money. Know that a bet for the Colts is both the obvious play and the way public money is going. That’s a dangerous proposition on a week where Vegas cleaned up on the public and the whole world is chasing come Monday.
That is, of course, unless you’re a Z-Code VIP Club member.
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE:
Colts 27 – Chargers 23
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