NFL Picks and Predictions Week Ten: Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings, Thursday Night Football
The Washington Redskins had a goal-line stand last week that could come to define their season. After a Danny Woodhead touchdown seemed to seal a crushing defeat, the play was reviewed and the Chargers had the ball on the half yard line. The Redskins held the Chargers out of the endzone, forcing a field goal that led to overtime. Washington would win the game after it felt like a ten point lead and possibly the season had slipped away.
The Minnesota Vikings aren’t playing for much. They seem to be the only team without hope in the NFC North. Still, this is not the team that saw Josh Freeman starting at qb. Christian Ponder is back, Adrian Peterson is healthy again, and the defense has been consistent all season. At home, they’re no slouches.
For me, this comes down to momentum. I’ve been stressing home field advantage all year on Thursday Night, and it’s good for deciding close games. Unfortunately, we haven’t had much luck with that trend. Here, I think the speed of the Redskins offense and the momentum they carry into this game should be enough. If the defense holds, Washington wins this game.
In addition to the home field trends, public money is heavily on the Redskins. This is a bad sign when there’s only one game tonight. Vegas is manipulating money to be on the Redskins. Sometimes it works – the Saints last week – and sometimes it doesn’t – the Colts. This is another variable that favors the Vikings, though.
The last variable here to consider is the computer algorithm. With four-stars of value and only a 42% chance of victory, the computer is conflicted. It seems to lean to the Vikings, but not with much confidence and without purely aligned parameters.
For me, it’s the Redskins tonight. For the computer it appears more of a no-bet scenario with conflicted signal.
Redskins 28 – Vikings 24
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