NFL Picks: Thursday Night Football – Cowboys at Bears
– Z-Code Public Money Tools Explained
I have my hesitations about this game to begin with and probably won’t be placing a wager. We’ll be monitoring it closely when we get closer to game time, but I wanted to take this opportunity to explain our public money tools in the VIP Club as well as my thoughts coming into this one. I’ll start with game analysis for the Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football and move onto why it’s backed up by the computer.
If you want to trust Tony Romo with your money on a short week at Soldier Field, at night, in the cold, in December – well, what better time to do it than when playing against Jay Cutler. That said, Romo is a liability here and, despite an excellent season so far, he makes me nervous.
The fact is, the Dallas Cowboys are stumbling a little bit lately. The offensive line is impressive and will likely do just fine against the Bears this week, but the defense has looked mediocre in recent weeks and they haven’t been able to fight back into games.
On the flip side, the Chicago Bears are home, getting 3.5 points, and fighting for whatever is left of their season. Don’t look now, but a couple wins have them back in the hunt. I’m not sure the Cowboys can stop the big weapons Chicago has, even if they don’t have any semblance of an offensive line. I feel bad for Jay Cutler like I’ve felt bad for Tony Romo every year leading up to this one.
Where I have questions about match ups, where I don’t trust Tony Romo in December, where the Cowboys are a road favorite by more than a field goal, and where the better team is on the road, this game definitely does not fit my system. Throw in a short week that favors the home team because noise directly affects execution and you have a recipe for handicapping disaster. I’m avoiding. The Bears are terrible, but they have everything working in their favor this week.
Now let’s look at public money. Our tools show this game already is the most public for the week with money flooding in for the Dallas Cowboys on the road. Normally, that’s a dead give away to avoid this one in the first place. The fact that this is the only game on Thursday Night makes that factor worse. The last dead give away will be if this line stays still or moves in the Cowboys favor, showing no fear from Vegas. Remember that replacement referees hail mary game between Seattle and Green Bay? The line jumped on the wrong side of a field goal while public money approached 90% and was decided on a blown call. Hooray for Vegas, but they seem to be pretty good at this.
With public money decisively suggesting Las Vegas thinks the Bears will cover (while we wait for sharp bettors at least), and so many reasons for hesitation, I’m leaning towards avoiding and if I could trust Chicago at all I’d throw a wager in on the home dog.
NO BET.
–> Also, don’t forget to check out our NHL Picks Page for a free $100 picks contest. This week’s game features my New Jersey Devils and the Washington Capitals.
Cheers.
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