NFL Picks October 18: Browns host Ravens in headlined matchup

Week six has arrived in the NFL season, and teams are trying to hit their stride for a second-half push in the next few weeks.  All but four teams are in action this weekend. I will make picks on four games, with the Ravens versus the Browns as the featured game.

Baltimore Ravens versus Cleveland Browns

In this AFC North rivalry matchup, the Ravens are first in the division with a 4-1 mark, with the Browns just a game behind at 3-2. Baltimore is a 3.5-point favorite with odds of 1.500 to 2.620 with an over/under of 41.5. Betting “under” is a 5-star pick at 79 percent, and Baltimore is a 4-star game winner pick. The Ravens are “burning hot” versus “average” on the Team Strength Oscillator and  +27 to +19 on  the Power Ranks Indicator. The Ravens have a scoring differential edge of +27 to -19 and have won 80 percent of their last five games as favorites.  Baltimore is the more stable team at +1 to -1 on the Team Volatility Oscillator. They also won both games between the teams last season. I like the Ravens to win and cover in a game “under” the line.

Pittsburgh Steelers versus Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pittsburgh comes in with a record of 3-2, but 0-2 on the road. The Buccaneers avoided an 0-5 start after upsetting the Cowboys last week. The Steelers are a 2.5-point road favorite with odds of 1.704 to 2.210 with an “over/under” of 39.5. Betting “over” is a 5-star pick at 83 percent, and the Steelers are a 4.5-star game winner pick. The Steelers are +11 to +4 on the Power Ranks Indicator, and have a scoring differential edge of +2 to -12. Tampa Bay is 0-3 at home, and Pittsburgh is 0-2 on the road. Neither team has been particularly stable, according to the Team Volatility Oscillator. I like the Steelers on the road to win and cover, but pass on the “over/under” bet.

Dallas Cowboys versus Green Bay Packers

The Cowboys are coming off a bad loss to the Buccaneers and sit at 2-3 on the season, while the Packers blew out the Bears, 31-7, and are 3-2 on the season. Green Bay is a 1.5-point favorite with odds of 1.840 to 1.990 with an “over/under” of 52.5. Betting “under” is a 5-star pick at 77 percent, while the Packers are a 4.5-star game winner pick. Dallas has a scoring differential edge of +2 to -8, but Green Bay has a +25 to +8 edge on the Power Ranks Indicator. Neither team has been very consistent with regard to their favorite/underdog status. Green Bay is 1-1 at home with Dallas having the same record on the road. I like the Packers to win and cover in a game “under” the line.

New York Jets versus New England Patriots

Two AFC East teams battle, and the defending AFC Champions head into play with a record of 3-2, with the Jets a game behind at 2-3. New England is a 7.5-point favorite with odds of 1.286 to 3.750 with an over/under of 43.5. Betting “over” is a 5-star pick at 76 percent, and the Patriots are a 4.5-star game winner pick. New England has won four of their last five as favorites. New England is +19 to +11 on the Power Ranks Indicator, and hold a scoring differential edge of +16 to -3. The Jets are 1-2 on the road, while the Patriots are 2-0 at home.  New England has been more consistent with regard to their favorite/underdog status. I like the Patriots with the Jets covering, in a game “over” the line.

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