NFL Picks: New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks, Monday Night Football
The New Orleans Saints offense is a well-oiled machine right now. Drew Brees is spreading the ball around, he’s protected, they’re balanced. The real story here is the New Orleans defense, though, and Rob Ryan’s successful development of one of the worst units in football history. The Saints now have a serviceable defense. Look out.
This week’s game in Seattle against the Seahawks is tremendously important. Seattle is not the same team on the road, and in the dome New Orleans would have a big edge in a potential playoff matchup. The field plays to their fast offense, the noise level will be disruptive, and it’s always better to sleep in your own bed at night through the playoffs. With home field potentially on the line, this is an epic game.
The exact reason to fear Seattle in the playoffs at home is the same reason you should fear them here. They’re incredible on their own field. The fans are louder than any in football, and their ground and pound offense thrives in cold, dreary weather. Defensively, they’re physical and wear people out. It’s not going to be impossible for the Saints to win this game, but it’s going to be very difficult.
Part of why I think the Saints have a chance here is because the Seahawks are dysfunctional right now. Key suspensions have them trying to talk Antoine Winfield out of retirement to fill the Legion of Boom. The Saints dismantled the Dallas Cowboys when key injuries weakened their defense. Is Seattle ready to adjust here? Can they use a depleted squad to shut down the best offense in the NFC?
Line movement suggests a Vegas fear of the Saints, which shifted significant value back to the Seahawks. New Orleans opened as six point favorites. If you, like me, got in there, I think you got a lot of value.
With the line where it is, Z-Code gives a 62% chance of covered -4.5, and a 74% chance of winning the game outright. Despite this sharp chance for victory, there is only 2.5 stars of value here and a flickering signal for the Saints as well. There is a conflicting signal in the algorithm here.
For me, I relocated to New Orleans this year. My fantasy football team needs Marshawn Lynch to have less than 18 points. I have a man crush on Drew Brees. Honestly, my heart is on the Saints, but I question the value at -4.5.
This should be a battle. I think the Saints offense will be able to move the ball and I think they can win this game. I’m taking 4.5 points here. I also have +6 and a teaser at +12.5 with the over. I’m excited for this one, and I’m on the Saints here with low confidence. I have three fun, small wagers after a phenomenal week of Thanksgiving Football produced high profits on all four of our featured games this week.
Saints 34 – Seahawks 30
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