NFL Picks: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots, MNF
We’ve hit both picks we posted for this week’s primetime games, which is a pretty impressive feat given the manipulation that Las Vegas can usually pull off on those types of games. Now, in a divisional rivalry game between the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots, we go for a perfect week on Monday Night Football.
This game seems too obvious. Public money is pouring in, the New England Patriots are undefeated and home, the Buffalo Bills have been mediocre and don’t seem to have the quarterback play necessary to beat the unbeaten Patriots on the road. Rex Ryan always seems to fall short against Tom Brady.
That said, I think this one could end up being pretty close. I think there’s value in the -7 line but I think that’s the trap. The New England Patriots are without Julian Edelman after he had surgery on his foot and this week could be something of an adjustment for the Patriots. What’s more, divisional rivalry games on a national stage tend to be tough wins, even when the home team is unbeaten.
As such, I’m on the money line here. I’ve teased it with a comfortable win by the Panthers and I like the money line by itself as well. The computer agrees, giving a 79% chance of victory to the home team in this one and we’re both on the New England Patriots. With a 4:1 chance of victory, the line would be justified all the way to -400 for having value. At -320, strange as it sounds, we have value here.
The spread is tricky, and I’d buy points if I were going in on the spread alone. I’m not, however, going to make that bet tonight.
Patriots 31 – Bills 27 (Patriots ML)
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