NCAA Basketball Picks: North Carolina at Florida State
The NBA All-Star Game was a fun one, with the East upsetting the West (as predicted in our VIP Club). This means NBA basketball is almost back. We’re also about halfway through the hockey Olympics. Soon, we’ll be back to normal. For now, all we have is college basketball, but I really like this game.
This morning when the line opened the Tar Heels were an underdog with five-stars of value despite conflicted signal in the money line portion of the algorithm. Now that they’re favorites, but still only have a 43% chance to win according to the computer, they’ve fallen to three stars of value. The computer is obviously in conflict, and I understand why, but I still like this game.
UNC is the better team, but they’re incredibly volatile. They can beat anyone, but they also lose to unranked and terrible teams. FSU is somewhere in between, and on their home court they have a shot. Still, how can you pick against UNC with this kind of value in the line?
We’re low confidence here as the computer senses a trap. Still, I like UNC to take this one.
UNC 70 – FSU 65
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