NBA Picks: Lebron James, Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat

NBA Picks: Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat

I wrote you guys a beautifully articulated prediction for tonight’s game between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat, but it got lost somehow while I was posting and now I have to rewrite it. Apologies if this one ends up a little shorter, but the keys to my analysis remain the same…

I love Lebron James. I think he will go down as the greatest player to ever play NBA basketball when all is said and done, and his blend of size, speed, and strength is unprecedented. He’s fun to watch, a good ambassador for the game, and a hard guy to hate. He blinds me, though. I’ve won big money on Lebron before during his playoff runs and championships, and I’ve lost regular season games in epic fashion where his team simply doesn’t show up.

The Miami Heat are a shell of the team they were when Lebron James was on the team. The core is getting old, they lack depth, and even in a miserable east they’re stumbling. I know that the Cavs are on the road here, and I know that the Cavs are tired, but I lean to Cleveland – despite their lack of defense – because this offense is on fire right now.

The computer agrees, offering a 58% chance for victory and three-stars of value in the 1.61 odds here. Again, I put my faith in my favorite player, I recognize my bias, and I find a small ML wager appropriate here. The Cavs are the better team, despite the obvious parameters of fatigue and travel here, and I think they’ll pull through. The offense is just too hot.

Cavs 104 – Heat 96Screen Shot 2015-03-16 at 9.16.46 AM

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