MLB Predictions: September 28-30

The MLB season winds down and the playoffs are just around the corner. Here’s some of the match ups to consider this weekend. Note that all information is for games played through September 24.

St. Louis Cardinals versus Chicago Cubs

The Cubs hold a narrow margin over the Brewers in the NL Central, while the Cardinals try to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Cubs hold a +27 to +25 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator, while both teams are “burning hot” on the Team Strength Oscillator. Basing bets strictly on favorite/underdog status is not wise in this series because both teams are among the most unstable teams in the league according to the Team Volatility Oscillator. Four of the six scheduled starters are in the green on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator with the best bets being Adam Wainwright for the Cardinals on Friday and Cole Hamels for the Cubs on Saturday. Neither scheduled starter for Sunday has been a good bet. Look for the Cubs to edge the Cardinals, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Cardinals sneak out the series win as well.

New York Yankees versus Boston Red Sox

The two top teams in the AL East meet. The Red Sox have locked up home field, while the Yankees look to secure the number one wild card spot. The Yankees hold a +26 to +23 edge on the Power Ranking Indicator and “average” versus “ice cold down” on the Team Strength Oscillator.  This is in large part due to the Red Sox playing a relatively mediocre 5-5 over their last ten. Not surprisingly, both teams are among the most stable in the league. The Yankees are undecided on the mound this weekend, while the Red Sox have scheduled Rick Porcello on Friday and Eduardo Rodriguez on Saturday. Both Porcello and Rodriguez have been excellent bets according to the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. Normally I’d go with the Red Sox, but the Yankees have more to play for and think they will take two of three in this series.

Washington Nationals versus Colorado Rockies

The Nationals have nudged their way past the .500 mark, while the Rockies still have an outside chance to catch the Dodgers in the NL West. Colorado has a +18 to +9 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator and “burning hot” versus “ice cold down” on the Team Strength Oscillator. The best bet on the mound this weekend is Kyle Freeland for the Rockies on Friday. He’s +1817 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. On the flip side, Tyler Anderson for the Rockies is the worst bet on Saturday at -1237. Only Erick Fedde at +68 is a moderately good bet for the Nationals. Look for the Rockies to win this series to help their mediocre playoff chances.

Oakland A’s versus Los Angeles Angels

The A’s have secured a playoff spot, while the Angels are just looking for momentum heading into the off season. Oakland has a +21 to +8 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator. They are 6-4 over their last ten and “average” on the Team Strength Oscillator, while the Angels are 3-7 and “dead” over the same period. The best and worst bets on the mound this weekend both wear an Oakland uniform. Mike Fiers is at +1537 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator, while Trevor Cahill is one to avoid at -1056. There is little indication that the Angels can stick with the A’s and could get swept. At the very least, the A’s will win two of three.

Los Angeles Dodgers versus San Francisco Giants

In this classic NL West showdown, the Dodgers hold a 1.5 game lead on the Rockies and the Giants try to end the season on a high note. Los Angeles is 8-2 over their last ten, contributing to their +20 on the Power Ranking Indicator and “burning hot” status.  San Francisco, by comparison, is only +6 and “ice cold down”. All three scheduled starters for the Dodgers are in the green on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. The best bet for the Giants and best in the series is Derek Holland on Sunday at +1387. The Giants would love to end their season knocking off the Dodgers, but just don’t see it. Look for the Dodgers to take two of three and enter the playoffs on a positive note.

Texas Rangers versus Seattle Mariners

The Rangers will likely be thinking about the off season before the series begins, sitting with just 66 wins. They are +7 on the Power Ranking Indicator and “ice cold up”, while the Mariners have had a good season at 14 games over .500. They are +17 and “average down”. The seventh most stable team in the league, the Rangers are consistently losing as underdogs, which is a good indication to pick the Mariners. The only scheduled starters this weekend in the green on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator are Wade LeBlanc of the Mariners and Yovani Gallardo for the Rangers. With both teams playing out the schedule, the Mariners are the better team and will win and could sweep the series.


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