MLB Picks: New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
I love this rivalry and look forward to Sunday Night Baseball. It’s Derek Jeter’s final year, two strong pitchers are going, neither team is hitting all that well right now, and I expect another really fun battle. As such, my system bet is to not bet this game. That said, there is a weak signal on the Yankees and a decent output suggesting the over. Let’s look a little deeper.
While the Yankees aren’t hitting right now, the Red Sox have been a mess. They sold off their ace and mortgaged the season as they start to rebuild a World Series Roster. This year is probably in the books for Boston, while the Yankees hold out hope for a Wild Card. This is a meaningful game because of the rivalry, but New York has to be getting desperate. I think that gives them an edge.
The Yankees are starting to come together as injuries to their veterans seem to be healed up. That’s another reason I like the computer’s over prediction. If Buccholz is off, he’s really off.
The computer gives a 64% chance for the over to hit, 55% money line chance to the underdog yankees to win. Unfortunately, there are no stars of value, which means the algorithm is in conflict.
Very low confidence, non-system play
Yankees 7 – Sox 3
Over 9, Yanks ML
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