A quarter of the MLB regular season is in the books. Some teams have surprised, while other expected contenders have gotten out of the gate slowly. There is a full slate of games scheduled for May 18. I will make picks for four games with the Cubs at the Brewers in the featured game.
Milwaukee Brewers versus Chicago Cubs
In this battle of NL Central rivals, the Cubs have a 2.5-game lead over the Brewers. Milwaukee is “burning hot” after going 5-1 over the last six, while Chicago is “average up” after going 2-4 over the same span. The teams have been involved in games “under” the line in eight of the last 12 games, while the teams have a combined scoring differential edge of +109. Milwaukee has a +28 to +26 edge on the Power Ranks Indicator, while the Cubs have a record of 18-5 at home versus Milwaukee’s road record of 10-8. I expect a tight game here, perhaps decided in extra innings, but go with the Cubs in a game “over” the line.
Cincinnati Reds versus Philadelphia Phillies
Both teams enter “burning hot” on the Team Strength Oscillator, and the Reds are +22 to +19 on the Power Ranks Indicator. The Phillies are 12-12 at home, while the Reds are 11-10 on the road. The teams have been trending on opposite sides of the “over/under” line, and both teams are among the worst in the league in scoring differential, at -25 and -29. Nick Lodolo is scheduled to pitch for the Reds. He is 0-1 with an ERA of 8.68 and is a poor bet, at -$200 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. The Phillies have been excellent since Don Mattingly took over as manager. They appear to be hitting their stride. I like the Phillies at home in a game “over” the line.
Los Angeles Dodgers versus San Diego Padres
In this NL West clash, the Dodgers come in just a half-game ahead of the Padres for the division lead. Los Angeles is “burning hot” versus “average” on the Team Strength Oscillator, and +27 to +23 on the Power Ranks Indicator. Despite being so close in the standings, the Dodgers have a commanding edge in scoring differential at +72 to -1. Both teams have been involved in games “under” the line in two of the last three, but the longer-term trend has the Dodgers more “over” the line. The Dodgers have been more consistent regarding their favorite/underdog status. Los Angeles has a better road record than San Diego’s home mark. I like the Dodgers but pass on the “over/under” bet.
Toronto Blue Jays versus New York Yankees
In this AL East battle, both teams are 2-4 over the last six. The Yankees are 28-17 overall, and 14-6 at home, while the Blue Jays are 19-25 and 6-14 on the road. New York is “ice cold up” versus “ice cold down” and +21 to +3 on the Power Ranks Indicator. The Yankees have a huge edge in scoring differential at +72 to -15. They have also been the more stable table, at +8 to +5 on the Team Volatility Oscillator. Toronto has been involved in games “over” the line in four of the last six. There is little to make me believe that the Blue Jays have much of a chance in this one. I like the Yankees by at least three runs in a game “over” the line.
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