MLB Picks for October 5: American League Divisional Playoffs

The MLB playoffs are in full swing with the wild card round in the rearview mirror. The American League divisional playoff round begins with two interesting matchups. I will make picks for both the Chicago White Sox versus the Cleveland Guardians and the Tampa Bay Rays hosting the New York Yankees. 

Chicago White Sox versus Cleveland Guardians

The White Sox advanced by defeating the Houston Astros in two games in the Wild Card round, while the Guardians earned a bye as the number two seed in the American League. Chicago had a regular season record of 84-78 and 36-45 on the road, and Cleveland was 85-77 and 41-40 at home. Chicago is “burning hot” versus “average” on the Team Strength Oscillator and +22 to +18 on the Power Ranks Indicator. The teams are trending in games “over” the line over the last three, and the White Sox had a +56 to +11 scoring differential edge during the regular season. Cleveland was the more stable team during the regular season, according to the Team Volatility Oscillator. The teams were very evenly matched, with Chicago winning 7 and Cleveland 6 in head-to-head play.  The White Sox have been playing well and on a roll, while Cleveland has been waiting. I like Chicago to catch Cleveland perhaps off-guard in the opener. Go with the White Sox on the road in a game “over” the line.

New York Yankees versus Tampa Bay Rays

In this American League East showdown, the Yankees advanced by taking down the Red Sox in two, while the Rays sit with the number one seed. New York had a regular season record of 93-68 and 47-34 on the road, while Tampa Bay was 98-64 and 55-26 at home. The Yankees are “burning hot” versus “average down” on the Team Strength Oscillator and +26 to +24 on the Power Ranks Indicator. The teams have been involved in games “over” the line in 11 of the last 12 games combined, although the score-predicted total is only four runs with 70 percent confidence. The Rays won 7 of the 13 games between the teams this season with 99 total runs scored in the 13 games. The two teams had the top scoring differential in the American League with a combined +224. Both teams have been moderately consistent regarding their favorite/underdog status. Again, I will go with the team that has been playing and has the hot hand. Let’s go with the Yankees in the opener, but pass on the over/under bet.

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