MLB Picks: Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
I don’t usually challenge the computer on a flat bat situation, but we’re going to go forward with this play despite the minimal signal from the computer and the apparent underdog value in the line.
First, I believe in David Price. I think a power pitcher in this situation is going to have a field day. The Minnesota Twins don’t hit and they certainly don’t hit shutdown pitching. The Detroit Tigers have won a couple in a row and are starting to surge. I see the Twins playing better baseball, but this is the class of the AL Central division and I think even the home field edge will not be enough to overcome David Price and the mighty Detroit Tigers.
Second, this fits my system. I certainly prefer situations where I can press a statistical advantage and use progressions, but I do not like the way pitching shakes out the rest of the series. That said, there’s value in the line. The Tigers are the better team with the better pitcher. Neither team has much more momentum than the other coming into this series, and the computer’s signal isn’t strong enough for me to walk away.
Flat bet, with no chase, Tigers money line.
Tigers 6 – Twins 2
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