We had this one pegged as an MLB Picks Contest game, but after Johnny Cueto got removed from this one suddenly I don’t see this as much of a coin flip. You have three games in a row now of a better team with a better pitcher playing better baseball at home. The line is reasonable, the Reds limp in with a spot starter, and I like the Pittsburgh Pirates in an ABC progression here against the Cincinnati Reds.
I have some issues trusting the Pittsburgh Pirates lineup sometimes, and they were a highly mediocre team at the beginning of the year. That said, their pitching has started to carry them and suddenly they look poised to make a run. Andrew McCutchen looks healthy and the lineup is clicking a little bit, but the reason I like an ABC here is for the pitching edge throughout this series.
The Cincinnati Reds are really struggling this year, and the only useful piece of the puzzle is getting this series off as Cueto had his start bumped back til Friday. The lineup got old and the team never really rebuilt. This is a mediocre team on their best day, and I think at home the Pirates have a serious edge.
The computer gives this one a 57% chance for the Pittsburgh Pirates to win this one and has three stars of value in the corresponding money line. I like the ABC here and will move forward throughout the series.
Pirates 5 – Reds 2
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