Boston Red Sox on Fire and Playing a Weak Twins Team at Home in a Four Game Series
Hanley Ramirez led the Red Sox to victory over the Giants with three homers and 6 RBIs on Wednesday night and is hoping to carry the seemingly unstoppable momentum the Sox have built into another big series win against the Twins. The Red Sox have won 7 of their last 8 after sweeping the Rays and the Giants and with their last win they overtook the Orioles for the top spot in the AL east. A four game home-series against one of the weakest teams in baseball represents a huge opportunity to bolster their lead and build their momentum.
The Twins are at the bottom of the AL standings but have won 6 of their last 10 including three impressive wins against the Rangers on the road. However, the Sox haven’t lost at home since returning from the all-star break and the Twins are at the bottom of the standings for a reason. This series should be an easy win for the Sox, and for betting purposes we at Z-code are recommending an ABC progression with an adjustment for break-even betting on the B and C bets if necessary. Here’s why:
Game 1: Duffey vs. Wright
Duffey had a rough start but has begun to heat up as he has booked all of his 5 wins in his last 5 starts. Wright is the more consistent and impressive pitcher overall with 11 total wins, 8 of which came from his last 9 games. In his last matchup against the Twins in early June he allowed just one unearned run in over 7 innings. Coming off a huge sweep of a much more competent Giants team, I think game 1 will be an easy win for Boston. The line is currently at -192
Game 2: Gibson vs. Rodriguez
This game poses a problem as it favors the Twins. Gibson is far from an ace, but he’s not terrible. Rodriguez is unpredictable as he is recently back from triple-A ball. He did, however, have an impressive showing in his win against the Yankees last week. This game is a toss-up at best and more reasonably favors the Twins.
Game 3: Nolasco vs. Price
David Price has struggled recently, but 9 wins and 141 Ks this season are hard to argue with. He represents C-bet insurance. If the Red Sox make it this far without a win, Price is the ideal pitcher to have on the mound for a clutch bounce-back game.
Synopsis:
Game one will hopefully be an easy win. If by some miracle the Twins manage to pull off the upset, game 2 will be a break-even bet because of the pitcher volatility. If we have to take it to game 3, we will post another break-even bet and leave our money in the capable hands of David Price.
The Bet:
Red Sox 1.91 units to win 1
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