Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves
Looking at the general team trends, the Brewers are at 9 in the power rankings and +24 according to the Power Rank Indicator. On the other hand, the Braves rank 15 and +!1 in the Power Rank Indicator. Both teams are increasing in both rankings, indicating good play by both teams. The Strength Oscillator also indicates as such, with the Brewers at +6.88 and the Braves nearly identical at +6.4. Neither team is in the top 10 in Team Volatility, which measures the consistency at which a team wins when the favorite or loses when the underdog. Therefore, those that bet shouldn’t take favorite or underdog as seriously as other factors in this match up.
Looking at the pitching match ups:
Saturday, June 24: Matt Garza versus R.A. Dickey
In this matchup versus two veterans, Garza comes in with a 3-3 record and 4.42 ERA. He’s been pitching poorly of late with a 6.75 ERA over the last five games and is -548 in the Profit Oscillator. This is slightly down overall since the start of the season, but indicates not a good bet. Dickey pitched well in his last outing, allowing no runs in 7 innings and is 5-5 with a 4.91 ERA overall. His Profit Oscillator number is a solid +227 and has been generally increasing. Home field advantage plus a better overall betting trend gives this one to DIckey and the Braves.
Sunday, June 25: Zack Davis versus Julio Teheran
Both pitchers have been pitching well lately, with Davis posting a 2.40 ERA over the last three starts and Teheran a 2.66 ERA in his last three. Their seasonal totals are relatively close as well, 7-4 with a 5.40 ERA for Davis and 6-5 with a 4.76 ERA for Teheran. The biggest difference is in their Profit Oscillator number, by a wide margin. Davis is at +1327 and Teheran is at -197 and has been in the red all season. The best bet by a significant margin is Davis and the Brewers.
Colorado Rockies versus Los Angeles Dodgers
There’s no question that both teams have been playing well and are battling it out in the NL West. The rankings have the teams neck and neck. Rockies are 3rd in power rankings while the Dodgers are 4th. In terms of the Power Ranking Indicator, again nearly deadlocked with the Rockies at +28 and the Dodgers are +26. In terms of betting, the Dodgers are much more consistent overall, in fact they are the most consistent and stable team in the league. The Volatility Oscillator has the Dodgers number 1, while the Rockies are not in the top 10.
Saturday, June 24: Tyler Chatwood versus Clayton Kershaw
It’s very difficult to bet against Kershaw when he’s on the mound. He is 10-2 with a 2.61 ERA and has a high positive number in terms of the Profit Oscillator. More importantly is that his trend is very strongly increasing since May 1. Chatwood has a 4.08 ERA overall, but a 1.73 ERA over the last four starts. He’s been a solid bet as well, but has been more inconsistent. Pick the Dodgers and Kershaw in game two of this series.
Sunday, June 25: German Marquez versus Brandon McCarthy
This is a relatively even match up, with Marquez and McCarthy both pitching very well recently. McCarthy has an ERA of 1.57 over the last six games, while Marquez has a 1.53 ERA over his last three. In terms of Profit Oscillation, Marquez is at +2, which is his highest all season. McCarthy is at -135 and has been much more inconsistent, showing upward and downward trends. As this match up is close and it’s hard to envision as sweep with the two teams evenly matched. Bet on the Rockies to pull out the final game of the series.
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