March Madness 2016 NCAA National Championship Game: Nova vs UNC

NCAA National Championship Predictions: Villanova vs UNC

Well, I was not high enough of Villanova. The kids from Philly can just flat out shoot. I thought they would struggle in the tournament but they have cruised to the National Championship. It’s been a very impressive run, but they take on the favorite to win it all in UNC and absolutely have their work cut out for them. The -2 line seems to have plenty of value on the Tar Heels.

But something about this doesn’t feel¬†right. You have a scrappy team of sharp shooters in Villanova taking on a program facing impending violations that sort of cheated their way to the title game. It feels like Rocky vs that big ugly Russian dude, doesn’t it?

I sense a trap. National Championships always carry a bit of an extra public money bait to them, and the line opened at -2.5 and moved down to -2 to encourage more wagers on UNC. A modest 57% of the public is on UNC tonight despite the one-shot spread, but moving the line against that money still smells funny to me.

The Z-Code computer output for this one is conflicted. The computer sees no value in the line, but has UNC winning. I think that there have been no dominant teams this season and a matchup between Villanova and UNC is essentially an even contest. With Villanova shooting the way they are, they might have an edge over the slightly more talented Tar Heels.

I’m buying this to +3 and taking the Villanova money line.

Villanova 79 – UNC 75Screen Shot 2016-04-04 at 5.02.11 PM

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