St. Louis Cardinals versus Chicago Cubs
Examining this match up, I see two competitively matched teams. Neither teams is in the top 10 in the Team Volatility Oscillator, so betting strictly according to favorite or underdog is not wise here. Looking at the Power Ranking Indicator, the Cardinals are at +19 and climbing, while the Cubs are holding steady at +24. While both teams fall in the negative in the MLB Strength Oscillator, the Cardinals hold a slight advantage at -8.6, while the Cubs are at -11.09.
Looking at the pitching match ups:
July 21: Carlos Martinez versus Jake Arrieta
Martinez is 6-8 with a 3.36 ERA, but he’s 0-3 over his last five starts. Because of his recent poor stretch, he’s been a poor bet lately, down nearly 500 in the Pitcher Profit Oscillator over the last month to +105. Arrieta is 4-7 with a 4.17 ERA and is 3-3 over his last six starts. Although declining steadily in the Profit Oscillator, he’s been a very good bet at +1104. Due to the poor stretch by Martinez and the wide disparity in the Profit Oscillator in Arrieta’s favor, I pick the Cubs in the first game.
July 22: Adam Wainwright versus Jon Lester
Wainwright is 11-5 with a high 5.08 ERA this season. Despite that he’s always been a good bet and his recent 4-0 stretch has increased his profit oscillator number to +1398. Lester, on the other hand, has a better ERA at 4.07, but has been notoriously a poor bet. At 6-8 on the season, and 1-2 over the last three games, Lester is at -784 in the profit oscillator. Give game two to the Cardinals.
July 23: Michael Wacha versus Jose Quintana
Wacha has been pitching well lately, 4-0 over the last four games and 7-3 with a 3.71 ERA for the season. He’s been a solid bet, earning a profit of +616, up from a season low of +227 on June 15th. On the other hand, Quintana has been somewhat of a nightmare for betters, having been at low as -1400 on the profit oscillator. Although that has improved to -735, the best bet by a wide margin is Wacha and the Cardinals in the series finale.
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