We’re heading into the 3rd week of preseason and with opening weekend (September 7th) right around the corner, now is the time to start digging deeper into expectations for each team. Today we will take a look at the AFC West.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
Last season: 12-4
BetOnline O/U wins: 9.5
Expectations are high for the Raiders in their last season in Oakland. A late injury to Derek Carr derailed a fantastic 2016 regular season but Carr is back healthy to lead the offense once again.
Offensively, Oakland should be fun to watch. Carr will throw the ball all over the field and the Raiders should be able to score on anyone. But just like last season, the defense is a question mark. Khalil Mack is a beast but, overall, the defense was in the league’s bottom third.
There is a lot of hype on the Raiders and, while they should be a playoff team, winning 10 games might be a stretch. I think if you can find favorable odds on the under 9.5 wins there is value. But with any juice on 9.5 I think this is a safe pass.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Last season: 12-4
BetOnline O/U wins: 9
The Chiefs won the AFC West for the first time since 2010 last season and earned a first round bye in the playoffs. It was a great year for them but I am not sure it can be replicated this season.
Offensively, Alex Smith still runs the show. The loss of Jeremy Maclin will hurt but Smith isn’t much more than a game manager so don’t expect much flash from the offense. To be a successful offense with a game managing QB, a team needs a strong defense. The Chiefs were a little above average last season defensively and I don’t think that is good enough for them to make a run.
Last year the chiefs went 7-3 in games decided by 8 points or less and also had an elite year on special teams. I think there is some regression coming to Kansas City and the under 9 wins is worth a consideration.
DENVER BRONCOS
Last season: 9-7
BetOnline O/U wins: 8
2016 was a transition year for Denver as they missed the playoffs for the first time since 2010. After a QB competition to open training camp, the Broncos announced Trevor Siemian will be the opening week starter.
Defensively, Denver has arguably the best unit in the league. Von Miller leads a terrific pass rush and Denver added a few pieces to shore up the run defense. It will be tough to score on the Broncos once again this season.
The offensive side of the ball is where all the question marks are. Trevor Siemian needs to be able to give that defense the lead. He doesn’t have to be great but he needs to show improvements if the Broncos want to make any postseason noise. The other area of concern is the offensive line, who didn’t do a good job of protecting the QB or creating run space. The Broncos added a few pieces to this unit but it remains to be seen if it is enough.
Denver’s win total opened at 8.5 and the under was a great early play. Now that it has moved to 8, there is still some value in the under but there might be a few too many unknowns to make an investment here.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Last season: 5-11
BetOnline O/U wins: 7.5
A move up the road to Los Angeles might just be what the Chargers need. Injuries derailed any chance of a productive season last year. Phillip Rivers played well but key weapons missed time with injuries, leaving the offense sputtering.
Defensively, the Chargers made a huge jump last season and have a young core of exciting players. Assuming they can continue to develop together, this could be one of the stronger defensive units in the league.
On offense, Phillip Rivers is back once again and will be slinging the ball all over the field. If the offense can stay healthy, they will be in good shape to make some noise in the division. But given the age of a few key contributors, counting on an injury free season might be a stretch.
If the Chargers stay healthy, they can compete for the division. If they don’t, they are a bad team. With the win total set at 7.5, I think this is one we can take a pass on.
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