The Packers lost the division to the Vikings last year in the last game of the season. The Vikings will be good again this year, but the Packers are the team to beat and here’s why.

Jordy Nelson is back. Without Nelson, Aaron Rodgers was not the same quarterback in 2015. Combine that with a struggling Eddie Lacy and virtually no receiver stepping up to the plate in Nelson’s absence and it’s a miracle they made the playoffs at all last year.

As long as Green Bay can figure out its running game, expect big things from its offense. Furthermore, its defense was ranked in the top 12 of the NFL last year in points allowed. This is a team that can make a Super Bowl run if everything comes together.

The Vikings thrived in 2015. This was largely because their new franchise quarterback finally figured out how to win games- give the ball to Adrian Peterson. This was essentially the entire strategy in Minnesota and theres no reason to think they won’t do it again this year. Bridgewater is a good quarterback but he really thrived when Peterson returned. While AP is getting old for an NFL running back- especially one with his mileage- he still led the league (by a mile) in carries last year with 327.

Expect Minnesota to keep feeding the ball to Adrian Peterson until his legs literally fall off. And expect that to work.

Calvin Johnson retiring, which is just about the saddest football sentence ever, will leave a huge void in the Detroit Lions’ offense. I’m not convinced that Marvin Jones will be able to come anywhere close to filling Megatron’s shoes. I do, however, love the idea of Anquan Boldin running as their number 3 receiver. He’s a beefy strong receiver who never got the praise he deserved in San Francisco if you ask me.

Matthew Stafford had flashes of brilliance last year and can hopefully keep it going with his new receivers. Ameer Abdullah turned out to be an absolute letdown, however, and will need to rebound this year if the Lions are to have a strong offense.

All-in-all the Lions will probably need a season or two before they’re ready to take on this division. It seems hard to imagine any scenario where this Lions team could beat the team in Green Bay right now.

The Bears didn’t have the courage to fire the most overpaid quarterback in football last year and they’re not going to do it again this year. With that in mind, expect lots of interceptions, a few touchdown passes, and overall offensive ineptitude. Chicago began selling off anyone it could get rid of at the end of last season and is in total rebuild mode. They have a young new running back who was mildly ineffective for his workload last year, but could easily improve in 2016 given the opportunities we expect him to get. The Bears also have a lot to be excited about in the receiving duo of Alshon Jeffrey and Kevin White. I’m going to point out, however, that the Bears couldn’t win with Jeffrey and Brandon Marshall and that was when they also had Matt Forte so I don’t expect a rookie wideout to make too significant of an impact on this offense. No matter how fast you are or how great your hands are, Jay Cutler is still going to throw 15-20 of the passes meant for you straight to the defensive back guarding you. Add that to one of the worst defenses in football and you’ve got the makings of a team who goes last in its division.