WEEK 11: QB, RB, WR, TE, DST
QB
Derek Carr 7700/6300
Matt Ryan 7800/7100
Blake Bortles 7500/5900
Derek Carr has averaged just under 25 points in the last four games since returning from his bye week. He has weapons galore and a favorable matchup at Detroit. On draftkings I absolutely love his price and he will be in most of my lineups, on fan duel I think I like Matt Ryan a little better for the extra $100.
Matt Ryan has performed a little more poorly this year than we might have expected. Nonetheless, the falcons love to pass the ball and playing against a weak Colts pass defense at home in a spot where they really need a win- I love the falcons and Ryan to have a huge game here.
Bortles is a super value pick on DK but probably not worth the start on FD. At 5900 his price is great. We only need around 15 from him and he’s only scored less than that once. With a favorable matchup against the titans at home, I think he will easily put up 15+.
RB
Marshawn Lynch 8100/6700
Adrian Peterson 8900/6800
Charcandrick West 7100/4500
Jonathan Stewart 7000/4400
Chris Ivory 7200/6100
Frank Gore 6600/4700
Darren McFadden 6800/5000
Danny Woodhead 6400/5300
Marshawn Lynch is primed for a bounce back game at home against the 49ers. He’s coming off an injury so watch his status. I will say that if you can afford it and are stuck choosing between him and AP, I’d go with AP.
AP is coming off a 200yd 1td game on the road against Oakland’s respectable defense. He takes on Greenbay at home this week and I’m expecting another solid showing from him. Greenbay’s defense has been stout this season, but let’s not forget how cj anderson and ronnie hillman demolished them for almost 200 yards and 3 tds. At home, I love AP this week.
Charcandrick West AKA Charmander AKA Charizard after his insane shredding of the best defense in the NFL last week. He’s averaging somewhere in the realm of 20 points over the last three weeks and he has one of his more favorable matchups this week. I expect the Chiefs to continue to lean on him and for him to put up big numbers. At 4500 on DK he is a MUST START.
Jonathan Stewart is a value play. He’s getting 20+ carries a game right now and making the most of them. I think 100 and a TD is his ceiling, but we’d be happy with 100 at his price.
Chris Ivory continues to be undervalued. Last week he had a lackluster showing of only 136 total yards- on 18 carries I might add. Houston’s defense is totally beatable and Ivory is one of the most powerful RBs in football. His floor is high because of the workload he’ll get and his ceiling is limitless. With brandon marshall still hurt and bilal powell out, expect the jets to lean on Ivory. I also don’t think houston is capable of putting up enough points to stay in this game. Expect the game flow to heavily favor Ivory.
Frank gore is in here solely because of his price and matchup. Atlanta’s run defense has not been very good recently and gore is a talented back on a team with no one else to lean on. The only thing that concerns me is game flow. This game can easily turn into a shoot out which would wipe out Gores value. I would play him cautiously.
Darren McFadden is getting 20+ carries a game behind the best offensive line in football and he’s playing a pretty bad miami defense. Furthermore, now that romo and dez are back the cowboys will become a much more balanced team which should ultimately favor the run game. Defenses will no longer be able to crowd the box and that dallas line will be much better able to open the giant holes were used to seeing them open.
Danny woodhead is the most capable weapon in the chargers offense with keenan allen and malcom floyd out. Expect rivers to lean on him a ton.
WR
Julio Jones 9100/9300
Calvin Johnson 8100/7200
Danny Amendola 6100/4000
Sammy Watkins 6600/4800
Stevie Johnson 5600/3900
Nate Washington 5600/4400
Eric Decker 7000/5800
Mike Evans 8000/7400
Michael Crabtree 6500/6000
Julio Jones is arguably the best receiver in football and he has a matchup that could easily turn into a shootout. The colts secondary is easily beatable and I would expect him to see a ton of action this week. He’s my number 1 expensive pick.
Calvin Johnson has been relatively quiet the last two weeks, but his floor is high and his matchup is good. The lions run game is terrible so expect them to be passing a lot. The raiders have been scoring a ton of points recently so this game can easily turn into a shootout. I like CJ a lot this week. I think he can put up high-dollar numbers at a reasonable price tag.
With Edelman out someone in the patriots receiving corps will have to step up. I don’t think that someone will be brandon lafell. I do think it will be danny amendola. He had 10 catches last week and was the go-to receiver against the jets when revis shut down edelman. I think brady and amendola have a strong rapport and I expect him to become the number 1 WR in edelman’s absence. Being the go-to guy on the best offense in football is a huge deal. So at his 4000 price he’s basically a must-start
Sammy Watkins is a force when gets the chance. He had a terrible outing last week against the Jets but thats to be expected when you’re being shadowed by the best cornerback in football. This week he’s got a great matchup against the patriots whose pass defense is garbage. The bills will have to put up a lot of points to stay in this game and I think they will be leaning on lesean mccoy and sammy to get it done. I love him and i love his price. Start him.
Stevie Johnson is the only capable receiver in the chargers formerly potent offense. He is here because of volume and price.
Nate washington is a flier but I can’t stop my system. Expect revis to limit hopkins’s performance this week and for Washington to see a bump. He’s super cheap and has a lot of upside. Throw him in a lineup or two
Eric Decker will be here until he gives me reason not to be.
Mike evans is still the only talented receiver on the bucs right now. Expect him to see 15 or so targets- what he does with them is unpredictable.
Crabtree is still the cheaper option in the red-hot raiders offense despite the fact that he’s putting up WR1 numbers. He, like decker, will be here until he gives me reason to drop him.
TE
Travis Kelce 5700/4700
Greg Olsen 6400/
Eric Ebron 5400/3500
ASJ 5100/2500
Kelce is a redzone monster and his team is all of a sudden scoring points thanks to Charizard. He has a favorable matchup and a good price this week.
Greg olsen is more expensive and has a less favorable matchup but he does get more workload. He is and has been all year the most talented receiver on the panthers. Olsen has the highest floor of all non-Greek TEs this week, but I don’t mind taking risks elsewhere.
Eric Ebron is my value play of the week. He’s got a great matchp against oakland who has been shredded by TEs all year. Furthermore this game can easily become a shootout which means lots of scoring opportunities. He’s cheap and since every TE other than gronk is totally capable of scoring 3 I don’t mind taking a risk on him.
Austin Sefarian Jenkins will be a beast when he comes back. Even he isn’t quite sure why he hasn’t been cleared to play yet. He’s been practicing and is listed as questionable. If he plays hell be worth 3x his current price tag. Monitor his status.
DST
Carolina 4900/3400
Eagles 4900/3100
Broncos 5300/3900
Bears /2000
Panthers have the niners at home and thats basically as good as it gets matchup-wise for a DST.
The eagles are playing TB at home which is another good matchup, but for the same price I like carolina.
The broncos had a bad week last week but they’re still the best defense in football and basically matchup proof. I don’t think Jeremy langford is all he’s cracked up to be. I think the broncos will shut chicago down here.
However, my number 1 value pic this week is the bears defense. The broncos are playing with no peyton manning and a banged up emmanuel sanders. Their offense has already struggled this year. I don’t think throwing the backup quarterback in the game is going to make it better.
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